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Please revisit your math books. Or maybe I misunderstood what you are trying to say. Here is a simple example: If there is 24% change of finding 2 depos instead of 1 on single search, then there is 42.2% change of finding more than 2 on 2 searches (1-0.76*0.76). Prove me wrong.
I introduced a concept of average find speed. That might require some extra thinking. Please don't mix it with probability.
Jani is right >>> to find the probability of 2 sequential independent events you multiply each chance together...
For Jolly:
24% to find extra x 24% to find extra = 5.76% chance to find 4 in 2 searches
24% to find extra x 76% to not find extra = 18.24% chance to find 3 in 2 searches
76% to not find extra x 24% to find extra = 18.24% chance to find 3 in 2 searches (so 36.48% chance total to find 3)
76% to not find extra x 76% chance to not find extra = 57.76% to find 2 in 2 searches
Expected Value of two searches by Jolly: 5.76% x 4 + 36.48% x 3 + 57.76% x 2 = 2.48 finds per 2 searches
The Contentious noob > 24% chance to find 3 + 76% chance to find 2 = expected value = 24% x 3 + 76% x 2 = 2.24 finds per 1 search
The value to me in the Cont guy is the overnight search and times I'm afk for work, etc. when I wouldn't be online to send the Jolly 2 times. He has value for that reason. Now with granite and other things to search for... it's good to have a gen like this I could buy with in game (not gem) resources. Unbooked, he will average 2 finds per search during those times I'm gone 8 hours+, while the booked Jolly averages 1.24 (since he only gets sent once).
i noticed something else about the conscientious geo. i gave him the quality mine shaft for copper mine. so he found 2 copper mines. when you hover the mouse over the mines, they both showed the quality mine shaft skill activated for the mine. but only 1 of the mine was fast. the other was normal speed. bug in the display of the skill, or bug in the mining speed?
If something in the game is set to have a 24% probability, then it happens 24 out of 100 times. 48 out of 200 times. 72 out of 300 times etc, ad infinitum. The likelihood of getting a "hit" will change within these iterations: after a dry spell, you'll get more hits closer together. After an above average set of runs, you'll get a dry spell. So yes, there will be a slight variance, but overall it will remain 24%. If that's what these formulas are illustrating, the fluctuations within the iterations, OK I get it. But 24% probability remains 24% no matter how many iterations of an event occur or how many formulas get thrown at it.
After a dry spell or an above average spell the future probability will still always remain 24%. The odds of rolling a seven are the same after 20 straight 7s or 50 non
7s.
As far as I have been able to tell, the conscientious geo only gets one roll. Even if the skill Quality copper mineshaft is listed on his second shaft, when you build the actual mine, it doesn't work. The mine is slow. So, my guess is the con geo won't ever find 4 marbles in one go.
:/ FF
Will never find 4. He can get one (natural), plus one automatically (inherent skill) - if deposit exists, and potentially one (up to 24% per search based on science skill level) additional deposit. No 4th deposit option is in the current skill stream.
I do love the integration of statistics - and different interpretation thereof!!! :D All that aside, I have found that, like previously mentioned, most of the numbers work out in the long run.... sometimes a lot longer of a run, but they do come back in bunches and work out statistically.