I've been mulling over my new Geologists abilities the past few days wondering if it is worth the retrain....
Question: Can the Contentious Geologist(given perfect chance) be capable of finding 4 deposits or only 3 with the various 2in1 perks?
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I've been mulling over my new Geologists abilities the past few days wondering if it is worth the retrain....
Question: Can the Contentious Geologist(given perfect chance) be capable of finding 4 deposits or only 3 with the various 2in1 perks?
Common question. Put you books in it an find out so we can finally have an answer... pretty please.
Already done. He will find one (1) extra (if one is available to find and not already 'locked' by another searching geologist) more deposit than he can. SO: He can find 3 marble deposits if your geo has the skill, "Two Marble in One;" 3 Iron Ore deposits if your geo has "Two Marble in One." Note that the 3rd deposit in these cases is NOT guaranteed - A deposit needs to be available, and the "Two *** in One" skills have only a 8/16/24% of being activated per search. Yes, I have done these and confirmed results on my isle.
I did not try the, "Two Coal in One," as I feel the books are better spent on other skills, but am sure it works in the same manner as marble and iron.
I also did not try the "Lucky Find" skill with the new geo as I'd prefer to have larger deposits ("Natural Born Digger"), so I am curious on what effect his skill has working with the "Two *** in One" and "Lucky Find"... Perhaps I will play with this on the test server, but even if it works (able to find up to 3 appropriate deposits with one of them being the "Lucky Find"), I am not sure it will be worth it over a guaranteed skill ("Natural Born Digger"), especially in light that he is a 'slow' geo.
You keep confirming the 1 extra deposit, guessing the 2in1 skill then, but haven't rebutted the possibility at 4in1, aka when his "main" search triggers 2in1 and IF his inate ability to find a guaranteed 2nd deposit has the potential to trigger the 2in1 ability as well or not.Quote:
Already done. He will find one (1) extra (if one is available to find and not already 'locked' by another searching geologist) more deposit than he can. SO: He can find 3 marble deposits if your geo has the skill, "Two Marble in One;" 3 Iron Ore deposits if your geo has "Two Marble in One." Note that the 3rd deposit in these cases is NOT guaranteed - A deposit needs to be available, and the "Two *** in One" skills have only a 8/16/24% of being activated per search. Yes, I have done these and confirmed results on my isle.
In the end I'm still on the fence with skilling him (that is way after the Explorers, which will take another few months...). Not entirely sure how to make best use of him. Right now, he's filling in Geo position 9+10 to get marble search in the morning out of the way in the first session and not needing to assign 2 more after the 1st session. Atm thinking more of a "send him out premature...timed...to have him find deposits shortly after they collapse"...back then I did it with marble, which had a pretty high chance of working, although iron never did....however it has started to do so "recently". Then again...not sure how to play him yet, until Explorers are done I got quite a while to make up my mind.
Well, I cannot refute that with absolute confidence as that is a BB issue. lol - However, in his description, "Finds an additional deposit wherever possible," which indicates one additional (an being singular), makes it unlikely he will find one on his 'base' search, and then possibly an additional one on his "Two *** in One" skill.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceruhe
Mine has found, since his tenure with my isle, perhaps 5 marble and 3-4 iron searches which contained the additional (Two in One...) deposits and no, a 4th deposit did not appear in any of these cases.
Is he normal or double speed?
Normal
So Jolly is more effective. He can find 4 deposits in the same that Contentious can find 3.
Well, not really.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jani321
Consider this:
- The Conscientious Geologist will be guaranteed* to find you two (2) deposits and if science is applied properly, get you one more at a 24% rate per search period.
- The Jolly Geologist is guaranteed* to find you one (1) deposit and if science is applied properly, get you one more at a 24% rate per half search period (being 2x fast as Wino/Conscientious Geos).
- User interaction is required to resend the Jolly on the second iteration.
- Since the the extra deposits derived from "Two *** in One" skill are NOT automatic, but a 24% chance, this makes the chances of the Jolly getting both extra deposits quite small, statistically speaking.
Since the % probability of finding the 2in1 is 24% for each individual search, the probability of the Jolly finding a 3rd and 4th in the same search period is:
Finding 2in1 in both searches = 5.6%.
Finding 2in1 in one search or the other = 42%
Finding 2in1 in neither search = 24.2%.
So, it is a close call in the area of time and the Jolly's advantage is not so great when considering the probabilities. I suppose it comes down to preferences; relatively speaking, he is cheap enough, and unless you already have a glut of geos, the conscientious geo would be a nice asset to perform morning (and sometimes nightly) searches. Also consider many send out geos when they plan to be afk for a bit, so does it really matter in many cases if he is 'fast' or not?
* = Guaranteed based upon said deposits being available to find.
Note:
Since the Conscientious Geologist is a 'slow' specialist, be sure to consider the order in which you send out your geologists. Actually, this is probably helpful information to any new player who sends out many geologists with differing skills/abilities.
In my testing, each geologist is given/assigned a random available deposit(s) of the type selected by the player, at the moment the order is issued to him, and NOT based upon the order that he will return from his search. As such, it is advisable to send the geologists with the skills you most desire first. As an example, if you are performing your morning marble search sending out 10 geos to find marble, and Conscientious Geologist last, he will not get his 2nd deposit as 9 before him have already been 'spoken for' by the previously assigned geologists; send Conscientious (and any other multiple deposit gleaning geologist) first, then follow-up with the low/no skilled geologists.
He's nice to have, and he doesn't cost that much.
Sorry, but your math is faulty. I don't see how these add up to 100 %.Quote:
Originally Posted by Raubhautz
Jolly for 2 searches: Find 2in1 2 times 5.8%, 2in1 1 time 36.5%, 2in1 0 times 57.8%, Average speed: 2.48 deposits/normal search time
Contentious for 1 search: Find 3 24%, find 2 76%, Average speed: 2.24 deposits/normal search time
They would be equal, if Contentious could find 2 or 4, as already suggested. Of course trouble of sending Jolly twice remains.
yeah, it seems like even new players are better off with jollys. better depoist find : speed ratio and cheaper cost. Just offer 300 (or even less) pumpkins for a jolly (300 gems) and id bet gem sellers would jump all over that.
if Contentious can find 2-3 depos in one search and a Jolly has a chance of finding 2-4 in the same time as the Contentious it is a no brainer. Ontop of this, the jolly should cost you less pumpkins like previously stated, Jolly > Contentious
the % chances of book skill (finding multi deposits) should be the exact same for either geo, which theoretically would give the jolly an advantage of finding more depos since you can send him out on more searches the same time it takes the Contentious to finish one, unless im not seeing something.
Their minimun # of depos found are the same, Jolly has a higher maximum and the jolly has better odds at finding atleast one additional depo in 2 searches compared to the Contentious only having 1 search.
I can see him as potentially useful for when I plan to be afk, such as in the morning for marble. Bought him because he's cheap, but he'll be my last to get books. I don't have any immediate plans for him. I'm giving preference to another jolly because they're so cheap and also fast. This guy would have been a lot more appealing as a 2x or maybe 1.5x.
I have a jolly with 2x marble, but I avoid using him for marble searches because I don't want his second find to be gimped to a non-booked search, whereas this one gets two at once at full skill.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jani321
Math is not faulty. It is odds that are NOT cumulative, but each and every geo has an (up to) 24% chance per search. Not going to teach math again. Feel free to google/search as you need to figure out for yourselves then. You all have made up your minds already, and just are arguing to argue. I tried to help a player, and get drivel returned. lol just like in Global. Later.Quote:
Originally Posted by Snacknado
i am certainly not argueing just to argue, you are saying "Math is not faulty. It is odds that are NOT cumulative, but each and every geo has an (up to) 24% chance per search.".... so each geo has a 24% chance to get an extra deposit per search.. so a jolly geo has 48% chance of finding 3 deposits in 2 searches compared to a contentious geo 24% chance of finding 3 depos in one search (same time).
That's great info to point out and I've been using that to my marble advantage.Quote:
In my testing, each geologist is given/assigned a random available deposit(s) of the type selected by the player, at the moment the order is issued to him, and NOT based upon the order that he will return from his search.
Another one is, where I've paid attention to at least, marble have a fairly fixed order it gets found in (only occasionally straying off that order). As I have arranged my masons that they will only pick away at one given deposit per sector (like in S8, I got them all towards the border of S9, meaning they will deplete the lower right and then the upper right marble deposit). S8 again, those very 2 deposits are most always the very last deposits that get found, which is annoying to me as that's where my main marble force is and they'd end up walking a sector or 2 or pick on the far marble deposit on the far left of S8.
So what I do is send my turtle Geos first, then the Jollies. That way I often get my top right marble deposits first as opposed to last (I got 10 Geos that is). Well, using that back then was alot more important to me as I was growing, but now it's about moot, but some things you pick up over the times are hard to shake off again hehe
odds are NOT cumulative a 24% chance, two times is still a 24% chance, not a 48% chance. In other words, a 24% chance is roughly a 1 in 4 chance. Sending him out twice makes that a 2 in 8 chance, not a 4 in 8 chance (48%). As far as the rest..... don't really care, but odds are NOT cumulativeQuote:
Originally Posted by Snacknado
thanks for the explanation Perwyn
Please revisit your math books. Or maybe I misunderstood what you are trying to say. Here is a simple example: If there is 24% change of finding 2 depos instead of 1 on single search, then there is 42.2% change of finding more than 2 on 2 searches (1-0.76*0.76). Prove me wrong.
I introduced a concept of average find speed. That might require some extra thinking. Please don't mix it with probability.
Jani is right >>> to find the probability of 2 sequential independent events you multiply each chance together...
For Jolly:
24% to find extra x 24% to find extra = 5.76% chance to find 4 in 2 searches
24% to find extra x 76% to not find extra = 18.24% chance to find 3 in 2 searches
76% to not find extra x 24% to find extra = 18.24% chance to find 3 in 2 searches (so 36.48% chance total to find 3)
76% to not find extra x 76% chance to not find extra = 57.76% to find 2 in 2 searches
Expected Value of two searches by Jolly: 5.76% x 4 + 36.48% x 3 + 57.76% x 2 = 2.48 finds per 2 searches
The Contentious noob > 24% chance to find 3 + 76% chance to find 2 = expected value = 24% x 3 + 76% x 2 = 2.24 finds per 1 search
The value to me in the Cont guy is the overnight search and times I'm afk for work, etc. when I wouldn't be online to send the Jolly 2 times. He has value for that reason. Now with granite and other things to search for... it's good to have a gen like this I could buy with in game (not gem) resources. Unbooked, he will average 2 finds per search during those times I'm gone 8 hours+, while the booked Jolly averages 1.24 (since he only gets sent once).
i noticed something else about the conscientious geo. i gave him the quality mine shaft for copper mine. so he found 2 copper mines. when you hover the mouse over the mines, they both showed the quality mine shaft skill activated for the mine. but only 1 of the mine was fast. the other was normal speed. bug in the display of the skill, or bug in the mining speed?
If something in the game is set to have a 24% probability, then it happens 24 out of 100 times. 48 out of 200 times. 72 out of 300 times etc, ad infinitum. The likelihood of getting a "hit" will change within these iterations: after a dry spell, you'll get more hits closer together. After an above average set of runs, you'll get a dry spell. So yes, there will be a slight variance, but overall it will remain 24%. If that's what these formulas are illustrating, the fluctuations within the iterations, OK I get it. But 24% probability remains 24% no matter how many iterations of an event occur or how many formulas get thrown at it.
After a dry spell or an above average spell the future probability will still always remain 24%. The odds of rolling a seven are the same after 20 straight 7s or 50 non
7s.
As far as I have been able to tell, the conscientious geo only gets one roll. Even if the skill Quality copper mineshaft is listed on his second shaft, when you build the actual mine, it doesn't work. The mine is slow. So, my guess is the con geo won't ever find 4 marbles in one go.
:/ FF
Will never find 4. He can get one (natural), plus one automatically (inherent skill) - if deposit exists, and potentially one (up to 24% per search based on science skill level) additional deposit. No 4th deposit option is in the current skill stream.
I do love the integration of statistics - and different interpretation thereof!!! :D All that aside, I have found that, like previously mentioned, most of the numbers work out in the long run.... sometimes a lot longer of a run, but they do come back in bunches and work out statistically.