Loot drops

As most of you know the loot drops have been posted along with guides to the adventures. Most adventures give you a percentage of chances you will get granite, e-wood, titanium ore or salt. A rough example of this is a 26% chance of granite, a 26% chance of e-wood, a 13% chance of salt peter and a 13% chance of titanium ore. Then you have your smaller percentages of chances to get a bigger granite, e-wood, titanium ore, or salt.

Over the past few weeks I have done a very large number of adventures and loot spots and I began to question just how accurate the chances of getting granite actually is; because I have accumulated over 240,000 e-wood logs during this period of time and that is with both of my e-wood sawmills running buffed almost continuously. I have gotten granite maybe two or three times total over this period of time.

I decided it must be a technical problem with my island and submitted a ticket to the tech department and they wrote back and told me that my drops were due to the amount of room on my island and luck. I wrote back and told them essentially that their answer was nonsense. The were not happy with me to say the least because I was not polite about it. They wrote back and told me if I was going to be rude that they would not help me so I apologized for that and told them that my brother was a computer engineer with the McDonnell Douglas Corporation and he worked as a team manager, and that he told me it was programming and the random number generator, and that if they had changed the programming then why didn't they just come right out and say so? I also told them I was very unhappy about the changes because I had spent quite a bit of money on the game as I liked it before they had changed it.

THEIR RESPONSE?? Well it was gee we are so sorry but we can't help you so we are going to forward your complaint to the correct department.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO OTHER PLAYERS? Well basically I believe that they have changed the programs on the adventures to drop not only less granite but also to drop less of the buildings like the witch tower and the dark castle. BUT THE BIGGEST PROBLEM I have is they have not told us this and most players continue to spend money buying gems because they believe that the drops and other things in the game have not changed.

HOW DO YOU FEEL? If you feel like you have not gotten what the adventure guides say you should be getting then let us hear from you, because essentially you are THEIR CUSTOMER! They stay in business because you are buying their gems based on what you know about the game.

Loot tables are player created. Getting mad at Blue Byte because they are inaccurate is silly.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SweaterPuppies

Loot tables are player created. Getting mad at Blue Byte because they are inaccurate is silly.

---

not even mad at the tables, anyone that does adventures on a reg basis know drop rates for follow ups and buildings have fallen extremely. I know from what ppl say that WTs drop from RBs which IMO is a myth. as for any building dropping the last one I had was a FM in a nords 2 like 2yrs ago. as for follow ups how many RBN or MSEs have you heard dropping lately? not many the ones in TO are from the hoarders and gougers that have some still

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Troll-Phu

not even mad at the tables, anyone that does adventures on a reg basis know drop rates for follow ups and buildings have fallen extremely. I know from what ppl say that WTs drop from RBs which IMO is a myth. as for any building dropping the last one I had was a FM in a nords 2 like 2yrs ago. as for follow ups how many RBN or MSEs have you heard dropping lately? not many the ones in TO are from the hoarders and gougers that have some still

---

I have gotten a Witch Tower from Roaring Bull and in the last two days I got three Return to the Bandit's Nest. Random Number Generators are evil.

I have had 1 WT since it was added to the RB loot. I have had 0 RTBN's since the nerf.

Four...
http://i.imgur.com/YZRhAEq.jpg

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SweaterPuppies

Loot tables are player created. Getting mad at Blue Byte because they are inaccurate is silly.

---

loot tables posted recently are based on data extracted from the game and not based on user's experience. at least that's what the "they" are claiming.

Five...
http://i.imgur.com/jZ5WWeX.jpg

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SweaterPuppies

Five...
http://i.imgur.com/jZ5WWeX.jpg

---

Do I see many RTBNs in a row.. :O I haven't got any in ages, even after close to 100 BNs..
Lucky you... but as always, makes it harder to guess what real loot percentages are.. :(

Bought 50 Bandit's Nests. Almost out of them and have gotten 6 Return to the Bandit's Nest. If only I had that luck with More Secluded Experiments.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SweaterPuppies

Bought 50 Bandit's Nests. Almost out of them and have gotten 6 Return to the Bandit's Nest. If only I had that luck with More Secluded Experiments.

---

The drop % for RBN was increased from 1.5% (before Island expansion) to 5.56%.
The drop % for MSE was decreased from 1.5% to 0.5%.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fuscus

The drop % for RBN was increased from 1.5% (before Island expansion) to 5.56%.
The drop % for MSE was decreased from 1.5% to 0.5%.

---

How do you say that? BB certainly does not announce it.. My recent BN runs, although less than 10, were still without RTBN.. :(

I will say this: I have had granite drop in the past three days, since I wrote and submitted a ticket, four times on four adventures. I can also say that I have had dark castles before the change drop as many as six times in a row, but since the change not once. What we are experiencing is programming. What my brother says is; something is only as good as the program behind it, and he should know because he worked on the computer programming for all of the space shuttles. I just believe that the players should be aware of it.

Hello,

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Leahea

I will say this: I have had granite drop in the past three days, since I wrote and submitted a ticket, four times on four adventures. I can also say that I have had dark castles before the change drop as many as six times in a row, but since the change not once. What we are experiencing is programming. What my brother says is; something is only as good as the program behind it, and he should know because he worked on the computer programming for all of the space shuttles. I just believe that the players should be aware of it.

---

The likelihood of receiving specific adventure loot is set by our game designers and is a server wide setting: everyone is affected by it in the same manner. Some users are lucky and receive the rewards they aim for more often than other users, but because the process is random, the more someone plays, the more the average values are met.

BB_Endesmor

RNGs are indeed evil but I can't honestly say I've ever had a run of [whatever] resource that didn't balance out with the other options in the end.

However the bold bit here is a bit of an eyebrow raiser:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Leahea

I decided it must be a technical problem with my island and submitted a ticket to the tech department and they wrote back and told me that my drops were due to the amount of room on my island and luck.

---

'cause... what? How is that supposed to work? Can one blow stuff up or build like a fiend or clear or not clear clouds and raise or lower their chance of [whatever] resource?

(Seems seriously unlikely but hey ho.)

This seems a good deal more likely for resources as well as building and adventure drops:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BB_Endesmor

The likelihood of receiving specific adventure loot is set by our game designers and is a server wide setting: everyone is affected by it in the same manner.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BB_Endesmor

Hello,
Some users are lucky and receive the rewards they aim for more often than other users, but because the process is random, the more someone plays, the more the average values are met.
BB_Endesmor

---

If I understand Probability right.. This is not entirely accurate. It's a fallacy, that if the process is random, the more someone plays, the more the average values are met. The average values in this case, would probably be met from BBs point of view, but not necessarily from an individual players point of view.

For example, it is entire possible, that a player walks into the casino, plays one game, and hits a jock pot.. and another one walks in, plays plenty of games (from his perspective / and ultimately limited resources), and still win nothing... Improbable, but not impossible...

Put in still other words... While the Averages may be met from BBs perspective (the complete system), some players will notably fall below, and some will notably fall above average.. (still giving the average BB expects).

Put in still other words The distribution across various players will be a curve.. *NOT* a single average... It's about statistical distribution, not only average.

Hope BB designers understand this.. and improve the system... Because I've never ever had a Nords2 drop from Nords or MSE drop from SE etc...
Hope I am clear, and send the message across to the designers.

EDIT - Please please please send this message across the game designers.. I can't emphasize enough, how bad this fallacy can be.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BB_Endesmor

Hello,
Some users are lucky and receive the rewards they aim for more often than other users, but because the process is random, the more someone plays, the more the average values are met.
BB_Endesmor

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by alice007

If I understand Probability right.. This is not entirely accurate. It's a fallacy, that if the process is random, the more someone plays, the more the average values are met. The average values in this case, would probably be met from BBs point of view, but not necessarily from an individual players point of view.

For example, it is entire possible, that a player walks into the casino, plays one game, and hits a jock pot.. and another one walks in, plays plenty of games (from his perspective / and ultimately limited resources), and still win nothing... Improbable, but not impossible...

Put in still other words... While the Averages may be met from BBs perspective (the complete system), some players will notably fall below, and some will notably fall above average.. (still giving the average BB expects).

Put in still other words The distribution across various players will be a curve.. *NOT* a single average... It's about statistical distribution, not only average.

Hope BB designers understand this.. and improve the system... Because I've never ever had a Nords2 drop from Nords or MSE drop from SE etc...
Hope I am clear, and send the message across to the designers.

EDIT - Please please please send this message across the game designers.. I can't emphasize enough, how bad this fallacy can be.

---

I might seem paranoid, but I think this is so important, can someone from BB acknowledge that this message has been understood and passed to designers and developers..

If the concept is still not clear, I can even write a small program to help designers and developers understand it.

Again, if I understand it right.. BB likely has a very bad assumption in it's design.. a.k.a design flaw and it affects every place they are relying on average of a random number generator.. including things like loot drops or mystery boxes etc etc

The distribution of loot between looters can be seen as a curve, yes. There will be fewer unlucky/lucky looters and the majority will be around average values. Of course, nobody gets the same loot all the time.

The chance to receive a specific loot is a simple value though, the system knows that value and bases the drops on it (for instance x% drop rate for item Y). If you play an adventure only twice, you might have "bad luck" and receive bad loot. The average loot you will receive after playing a large number of adventures should be close to the expected value and will tend to become closer as more adventures are completed.

BB_Endesmor

Lucky or unlucky just comes down to a person's point of view. From day to day, hour to hour that changes depending on mood. Perhaps you just got done watching a cat pop bubbles and are feeling great. The game is just lines of code, the same code for everyone. Blue Byte does not have the best track record with bugs in this game and timely fixes, are you really suggesting they took time to program a line of code saying "hey, let us rip off these players..."

Anywho, here is a little fact for you. No one is ever happy with the loot they get. I do not buy loot spot because you are giving another player your hard earned coin to be disappointed. You look at the loot tables people have published and you have dreams set aloft high in the clouds. I have no clue how many hundreds of Outlaws I have run. Would you care to guess how many times I got the double 1600 granite?

Spoiler

Zero

I have run The Black Knights many, many, many more times and once, just once I got what I thought was the ideal loot. People see that Roaring Bull has about a 2% chance to drop a Witch Tower so they figure that if they run fifty of them they will walk away with a one. That is not how statistics work. You might as well buy a million lottery tickets then complain that you did not win and it has to be rigged.

For the vast majority of us there is always going to be something holding you back in this game. When you start off it is stone, tools, pinewood, fish even. That turns into marble, hardwood, bread, and swords. Which turns into exotic wood and granite. Then you look back and wonder how you ever needed exotic wood. Saltpeter then shows up for a bit to kick you in the naughty bits while granite is still there laughing. Mahogany pops in until you run several of the 1001 Nights adventures. All culminating in a fight bouncing back between grout and granite of what you need at the time.

I guess my point in all of this is... if you are not having fun playing the game, or it makes you angry perhaps you should find a new hobby. I like red pandas, maybe I will go to the zoo today.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BB_Endesmor

The distribution of loot between looters can be seen as a curve, yes. There will be fewer unlucky/lucky looters and the majority will be around average values. Of course, nobody gets the same loot all the time.

---

Thanks for your response... You agree it will be a curve.. but
Does BB know What is the standard deviation for the curve, from the real data or even any specific model you may have?
i.e. what is the "majority" in this case?
If target drop rate of nords2 is 2%, Does 75% players get a drop rate between 1.5% and 2.5%
OR Does 75% players get a drop rate between 0.1% and 3.9%

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BB_Endesmor

The chance to receive a specific loot is a simple value though, the system knows that value and bases the drops on it (for instance x% drop rate for item Y). If you play an adventure only twice, you might have "bad luck" and receive bad loot. The average loot you will receive after playing a large number of adventures should be close to the expected value and will tend to become closer as more adventures are completed.

---

Agreed.. if one plays an adventure only twice, you might have bad luck and receive bad loot, or you might have receive good luck and good loot.
As you have heard from players many times (collectible drop rates during the event).. Most of the players complaining about the loot are not the ones who play far less frequently.. They are the ones who play frequently enough.. You keep going back to the average.. I'll keep asserting, that even among players who play high number of adventures, the distribution will still be a curve, although might be smaller standard deviation..

I don't have real data or your models to prove it... but an simulations I have run, shows me that if drop rates like 2%, for many players, running high number of adventures still yields far less drop rate.. Unless the expectation really is for some players to play 365 nords to get 1 nords 2 in a whole year, even if played once daily. (yes some lucky one will get 12 out of those 365 runs)

Again, without the actual numbers / data, we players can only complain.. I don't know..
Perhaps I am here to only play rolling roulette.. I just didn't realize it so far :D

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by alice007

Does BB know What is the stand deviation for the curve, from the real data or even any specific model you may have?
i.e. what is the "majority" in this case?
If target drop rate of nords2 is 2%, Does 75% players get a drop rate between 1.5% and 2.5%
OR Does 75% players get a drop rate between 0.1% and 3.9%

---

I don't know all these stats myself but I'm sure our designers check them on a regular basis.

BB_Endesmor

alice007 asks a very valid question.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BB_Endesmor

I don't know all these stats myself but I'm sure our designers check them on a regular basis.

---

Pardon me.. but I find that hard to believe, only because historically the designers seem to make such big blunders which you makes you wonder if they really know whats going on... Examples -
1. The weapons drop in loot.. How off was that? That it was completely nuked, years later... Long time to realize a mistake like that one..
2. The nukes, which could be dropped multiple times on a camp - Did they understand their model then?
3. Drop rates on follow on adventures, before the rate was literally dropped to 0 - Did they understand their model before that?
4. Introduction of MMA, and its impact on many adventures... IOTP could be done in 3 attacks, and so was removed from shop, but bugged in GQs for a long time. Sleepy Volcano can be done with 7-12R losses.
5. Mystery boxes dishing out loads of FMs in 2013, before getting removed from subsequent events.
6. Blocks on adventures.. perhaps it bugs BB till date... totally not conceived by designers, and I bet, it still haunts them and their models till date.
7. Introduction of MoD.. Whats the logic?
8. Introduction of Lord Dracul.. Whatever gave them the idea for stats like 111,333,777,999.
the list goes on.. for big and small design goofs..

Please don't get me wrong.. I love this game.. Especially its battle mechanics (wrote my own sim around it, which was the most fun thing for me in this game)..
But as for the rest... I am sorry to say, I don't have too much confidence in the abilities of the TSO game designers. :(
Don't mean to be negative.. but without seeing it with my own eyes, I find what you said above, hard to believe.

If nothing else, players have asked for some insights / reasoning into the decisions made by designers, on several occasions.. We all want to appreciate them.. only if they'd be willing to share data.. But no.. Nothing.. No information or insight what so ever.. :(
Beats me.. and it's no longer funny :p
(and to be clear it doesn't mean I am angry or anything like that.. Just voicing my opinion.. Thanks for listening :D)

PS - When percentages are low.. there is a big difference between a spread of 1-3% (latter seems 3x more lucky to the former) and 0.1-3.9% (latter seems 39x more lucky to the former). Again.. the standard deviation better be pretty small..

About the comments about drop percentages of granite etc... I personally don't care about them as much (even if, that may have been in the original topic).. Because there are many other ways to get those resources (Explorer treasure searches).... My concern (without anger) is mainly on drop rates for follow on adventures, or rare buildings, which simply can't be had any other way.. like you can't hope to play RTBN or MSE more than once a year (What a waste of the advs).. You have to be very lucky and spend several hours a week grinding on BN/SE to get a chance to play them once in a blue moon... some lucky ones will get a few in few days of course :D

I love Alice007's letters. It looks to me like she paid attention in statistics classes. I am currently almost at level 57 and I play and do adventures often. I understand that I am going to get runs of bad luck and good luck. I don't expect perfect loot every time I do an adventure. My point was that the designers have changed the way certain things in the game are dropped and they have not shared this information with the players. Most of us that play daily are also paying customers and I feel when we ask questions about specifics we should get straight answers. I feel like the answer I received from the support department when they told me that the loot was based on luck and the space on my island was not a straight answer and when I wrote back they still dodged the question. My only concern is not just the granite, but also the rare buildings (see my post on mystery boxes). Players that haven't read the forums and specifically haven't read the posts on the mystery boxes bought these during the Christmas event hoping to get some of the nicer buildings and many just got junk for their gems. Some did get some of the items they wanted but at a very inflated rate of gems spent in ratio to the items they received. I am more frustrated with the design then I am mad because I expect something in return for the money spent other than game time playing which many players get for free because they don't buy gems.

runs of bad luck are one thing, but since the change I have not seen this MYSTICAL WT drop from RB, thus I don't believe it drops!!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Troll-Phu

runs of bad luck are one thing, but since the change I have not seen this MYSTICAL WT drop from RB, thus I don't believe it drops!!

---

More indication of the alleged problem (design), can be seen at following post -

http://forum.thesettlersonline.net/t...l=1#post268625

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Troll-Phu

runs of bad luck are one thing, but since the change I have not seen this MYSTICAL WT drop from RB, thus I don't believe it drops!!

---

I do not know what it is like on Zeus, but on Ares the days of running Roaring Bull 24/7 are gone. You still see them from time to time popping up in trade, but few and far between. Only makes sense that there are less rumors of Witch Towers around.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SweaterPuppies

I do not know what it is like on Zeus, but on Ares the days of running Roaring Bull 24/7 are gone. You still see them from time to time popping up in trade, but few and far between. Only makes sense that there are less rumors of Witch Towers around.

---

I know about statistic and chances or odds or whatever one wishes to call them; Once thing I can say is that the numbers found/provided by the euro-wiki, though relatively accurate on many (mostly meaningless) things; but alas when applied or read to rare/exotic things such as WT/BC/AG/FM, the odds/chances (or however you would wish to view them) are changeable by the masters in charge (I find that since The Great Nerfing of Fall 2014 that this is particularly true when it relates to ANY pop related building). As such, I was not surprised when the powers that be, nerfed not only the defensive structures of RB, but the loot. I do not find the stiffening of an adventure that offensive, especially when it is rated 'Epic', level 9 and all that... good players will adapt and deal with additional losses and or time taken to complete the adventure. What I do find despicable is the not-so-random drops. If the Euro-wiki docs are correct, and there is little reason to believe that BB is providing them with accurate info, then the drop rate should be dispersed (over the long-run) at the rate provided; in my experience and in discussions with other high level players who run many of the same adv, these items tend to drop in 'bunches'... Won't see one for months, then suddenly in 2-3 week period, bam 5 WT. I ran 138 SE and approximately 250 SE ls before I got an AG (total of about 388 ls works to be approximately .26 % or about 8x that of a normal drop rate. Bad luck? Perhaps, but since not enough folks run SE to contrast that with, tough to make a case.

Biggest gripe with drops is when Nords2 at a cost of 1495 gems was stripped of reasonable drops of good stuff to nearly normal Adventure loot (with the extremely rare shot of rainbows or FM). With the cost of the adv, I do not see such a large flux of players running them (or at least admitting it), so it is tough to know the results.

I am sure that most of the players in this thread are already seasoned players, but just throwing it out there that when pulling for special buildings as in RB, SE and the like, swap out your ls, giving 3x the chances for a drop. More than 50% of my WT have come from ls (suppose that is appropriate since 66% of the drops are ls). WW mandates 4 players so that is not an issue, though finding 4 players ready to run one at any given time since XXL started is real tough.

WT do show up in TO on occasion in Zeus, but I think that currently most players who are shooting for them now are looking to ug their pop.

One last thing: Regarding the consideration/response of BB to Zeus/Ares players. I have a sense that being that we are only 2 servers in the TSO pool, that, though our complaints are real to us, in the big picture, it appears that the rest of the world of TSO does not share our problems/concerns. The Germans have 14? servers, Polish have 7, other euro servers are at least 3, with the French and Russians having 2 each at last count along with at least 7 other various servers. My guess is other groups may have more say/input than us, and that is fine being democratic and all. I do, however, wish that time was taken to keep us more informed and not always keeping us in the dark or otherwise treating our servers like 'red-headed-stepchildren'.

Here we go, I can hear it now. Responses about how all these other folks have no such bad luck and/or how it is a free game, yada, yada. Yes, yes. I also like the game; I have no problem with tossing USD when there are 3x sales and Love the long-term play style. Just saying - communication is a beautiful thing.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Raubhautz

...or otherwise treating our servers like 'red-headed-stepchildren'.

---

http://i.imgur.com/pHrsBU8.jpg

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Perwyn

http://i.imgur.com/pHrsBU8.jpg

---

lol = cute kid, though I see there is a lot of mischief in that one ;)

Loot drops need to go back a few years when the granite was more frequent and a higher %