How to calculate the value of a loot spot

Many sites like SettlersOnline Wiki have posted loot tables that are pretty much spot on. Using this info, we can calculate the expected value and the exact worth of a loot spot.

For example, here's Roaring Bull:
http://i.imgur.com/4On6jyA.png

We are guaranteed to get one of the items in each of the slots. Out of slot 1, we will get either granite, exo wood, titanium, or salt. Each of these commodities are readily traded (here's a price guide for Zues). For this example, we'll use these values:

granite = 3.75
exo logs = .35
titanium = 3
salt = 7

So, we have a 26% chance of getting 1000 granite. If we were guaranteed to get 1000 granite, then the value of this slot would be 3.75 X 1000 or 3750. But, our chance of getting 1000 granite is actually only 26%, so our "expected value" is .26 x 3750 or 975. Carrying out the calculations for each item on the loot table, we get something like this:

http://i.imgur.com/EzV0RaM.png

So, the total value of a RB loot spot is 5313.

Here's the same calculations, using the same commodity values, for Black Knight:

http://i.imgur.com/CLLJPUi.png

but you are using an overall average, which in some cases works out over thousands of these. but 1k e-logs and the other garbage seems to drop a lot more than the site says it should. if you are trying to justify one of the shady price guides out there, where guilds use 2 separate ones to cheat players with then I guess the math works...........

Yeah, math is fun and all and sure there is a theoretical value to every loot spot but I have two points for you. One, that is not exactly how statistics work. Two, every person has their own value to each resource. Sure price guides are nice but things like exotic wood have zero value to people who buy a lot of loot spots or run a lot of adventures. Do not get me wrong, I find it amusing every day with a bowl of popcorn watching the arguments people have over the cost of loot spots in the trade tab. Whenever I get bored I just ask for a price check on banners and kick back and enjoy... but I am a terrible person.

Now I do not go out buying loot spots, and I will finish an adventure without the extra player if no one in the guild or on my friends list wants it so my opinion is probably rubbish. Anywho, here is how I believe one should price loot spots.

http://i.imgur.com/vccI00f.png

I think it's a pretty good guide to determining market value for a ls vs actual realized loot value gained, textbook style.

Like anything learned from a textbook, it's the lowest common denominator of an area of knowledge and while anyone who learns it can get by on that knowledge, anyone who really studies in depth can indeed find many variables to the circumstances and lots of margin for personal profit.

And, as mentioned, the fact that it seems like they play with the loot tables at times is the toughest part. Right now it seems like I get exo about 4x as often as granite. And granite has a much higher personal value to me.

Thanks for posting this; I'll point to it when trying to explain the wisdom of buying ls to those who still don't get it.

you get either 1k granite or not...you never get 26% of 1k granite

With only 500~600r loss in BK, I will imagine a hard time trying to sell its loot spot for 2.5k.

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Originally Posted by tomsb1176

you get either 1k granite or not...you never get 26% of 1k granite

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It's the way the math works on figuring out the value, though.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lastsw

With only 500~600r loss in BK, I will imagine a hard time trying to sell its loot spot for 2.5k.

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Trying to sell a product for what someone else can get for it is always tough, as it should be. In this case, the ls buyer has to put in their time, some money up front, and if they wish to realize the value beyond an actual gain in their own stores, time and trouble selling the proceeds. Of COURSE they need to win on the deal if you want them to buy your ls.

Given the value of a LS is generally less than the loot, you should try to swap more slots. I'm just saying... one reason to be in a bigger, more active guild... especially with a handful of similar level players running similar adventures (DP/SFTR then BK/RB then FT's).

There are exceptions to this rule such as the buff quests in FT's.

Conceptually, the process is good in the calculating in rl, in here, with so many other fluid motives driving players, those prices may not always happen, things like events drive ls prices as well. Unlike real life, players will spend more than they should because they can without punishment, so... imho, prices are always dynamic.


Agree with KingHomer on keeping to swap whenever possible.

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Originally Posted by Troll-Phu

if you are trying to justify one of the shady price guides out there, where guilds use 2 separate ones to cheat players with then I guess the math works...........

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First, I'm not trying to justify anything. Far too many people don't seem to understand what a LS is really worth (just look at some of the responses here) and there's constant bickering over what each one is worth. There's really no reason to argue. This isn't something about how you feel or who's manipulating what, it's just simple math. Maybe the percentages are a bit off (I think they're pretty accurate), maybe granite actually sells for 3.4 instead of 3.5 (it's sure to change day to day), but overall, this is the answer and there's really no debate.

Next, the only thing shady here is your comment. It's really out of line for you to imply anything underhanded. I don't have anything to do with either of the price guides other than to say "thanks for the hard work" (something you might want to try). The prices used here are the prices I sell at every day and the guide is simply for future pricing.

If you have something positive to contribute, great, let's hear it. Otherwise, just say "thanks" and move on.

A loot spot has absolutely zero intrinsic value; it's worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Some LS will be worth more to some players than others, and every player's opinion is likely to vary based on what their specific goals are at the time and their own aversion to risk, as paying for a loot drop is more gambling than anything. As a buyer you might think a BK LS is worth 900c; I might not be willing to pay more than 700. Neither of us is wrong. As a seller, if I really need to get 900c, then it's worth 900c. It has nothing to do with what the loot might conceivably be "worth" if the stars are in alignment and the gods want to drop a dark castle on my head.

Essentially, the lootspot sales are futures purchases. People are purchasing the opportunity to get the loot roll, which may or may not be worth what they are paying. There are some other considerations that can come into play, such as adventures that are rare and needed for a quest or achievement. Beyond the straight financial is the value assigned to experience, which is a new factor since the creation of the mini-quests.

The base formula used to assign a value is more or less accurate, as many people simply base the cost on the desirable resources. The addition of the more rare occurences, especially building drops, is not typical, and would tend to inflate the price well beyond what would be considered market value, since the values of the buildings are relatively high.

I would not agree that it is the seller that determines the value though. The value of the spot is ultimately what someone will pay for it, regardless of the desires of the seller. At some point, the seller has to either take what is offered for the spot, or lose it by completing the adventure with it unfilled. Swapping should give more to the person doing the adventure, as it not only provides the resources of the first slot, but the actual resources for the other slots as well.

I really appreciate playing with smart and helpful people. Thanks Up!

While Upgraydedds logic makes perfect sense....SweaterPuppies' post is the reality.