Originally Posted by
Aurboth
As usual for the events, people are asking what searches to do to find the most event resources. Here is a simple look at the math for determining what searches are best for the individual player.
The simplest case is the explorer which has not been upgraded through education bonuses (manuscripts, tomes, and codeces). The following is the reported ball drops for the event, taken from the EU Wiki; the times are base time for tavern explorers:
Short (6 hrs): 0 / 1 / 2
Medium (12 hrs): 1 / 2 / 3
Long (24 hrs): 3 / 4 / 5
Very Long (48 hrs): 7 / 8 / 9
Prolonged (72 hrs): 11 / 12 / 13
There are a few facts that are obvious. First, each of the variance is only plus or minus one from the middle return. As long as the percentages for returning follow the previous patterns, where it is equally likely to get either a higher or lower return, over time it will not matter to the calculations. It should average out with enough returns. Second, if you calculate out the return vs. time, you will see it is one ball for each 6 hours, regardless of the search. Therefore, the type of search does not matter for the return; the important part is how much time is spent NOT searching. To maximize return with unbooked explorers, a player should send searches that will return when the player will be ready to send them out again, with minimal downtime.
The more complex scenario for determining resource returns is when the explorers are modified. There are several types of upgrades that will modify the way the explorers will behave, affecting different types of searches. The upgrades that affect general treasure return are:
Manuscript:
Mountain Boots: Shortens all searches: 3% / 6% / 9%
Pilgrimage: Shortens Long searches: 5% / 10% / 15%
Tomb:
Extended Weekend: Shortens Medium searches: 5% / 10% / 15%
(Study Shovel: Increase loot return 3% / 6% / 9%)
Codex:
Sabbatical: Shortens Extra long searches: 5% / 10% / 15%
Pathfinder: Shortens all Searches: 5% / 10% / 15%
Obviously, the best search for the player depends on how they have set up their books for each explorer. However, here are some basic concepts to help make decisions. Assuming the explorers are set for best loot returns, at the first level they will place two or three books in each of the two skills available. Using the more general option will decrease all times to 91%, and placing the other two books will reduce long searches to about 82% time. If you are stopping at manuscripts, you will get a slightly faster return on long searches placing three books in long search, at 80%, but will have less effect on other searches if you needed to do them (94% vs. 91%). There is the option of investing an extra manuscript rather than a higher book, but it is of limited benefit (77% for long searches)
If you are going to use tombs on the explorer, extended weekend is on the lower tier of the tomb section. Adding all three books to it will decrease medium searches to 85% duration. Assuming you have used the higher skill for decreasing all explorer times, that reduces medium searches to about 77%, long to 82%, and all others 91%. As a side note, Study Shovel will increase all treasure returns, and is located on the higher tier tomb, so should not conflict with enhancing medium search times when placing five per level.
If you are going to use codices on the explorer, there are two skills that act on search times. As there is only one level for the codex, it is again a question of using books on either general time or extra long searches. As the percentages are the same, it does not matter for extra long searches where you give more books, and there is a greater benefit for all other searches placing more books in the Pathfinder skill. Doing so will decrease all search times by another 85%, and extra long searches by 76.5% total. Keeping the maximum benefit placement, we get the following improvements, with premium and lucky times also included
Short: 77% - 2.3 hours (1.15 / 0.77) - 0.43 balls/hour (0.87 / 1.3)
Medium: 66% - 4 hours (2 / 1.3) - 0.5 balls/hour (1 / 1.5)
Long: 70% - 8.4 hours (4.2 / 2.8) - 0.47 balls/hour (0.95 / 1.4)
Very Long: 70% - 16.8 hours (8.4 / 5.6) - 0.48 balls/hour (0.95 / 1.4)
Prolonged: 77% - 27.7 hours (13.9 / 9.2) - 0.43 balls/hour (0.86 / 1.3)
The medium search is marginally better than the other searches, but it ultimately depends on the player sending out the searches. Due to availability, the searches should most frequently be done with premium explorers (experienced or savage). If a player can send out the explorers in 0.15 hours (just under 10 minutes) each time, the times for searches change to medium 2.15 and prolonged 14.05, giving a comparative return of 0.93 and 0.85. With a 30 minute resending, it goes to 2.5 and 14.4, with adjusted return rates of 0.8 and 0.83.
The bottom line is that even with all the books you can add, ultimately it is the player time that sets what search is best. The medium search has the best return ratio, but quickly degrades if the player is not able to resend promptly and requires frequent sending. The very long search has a very close return, with only a fraction of the degradation from sending delays. But overall, the best search is the one that you are available to receive at the other end.
