Manuscript blueprint

confession to make...I got mine on the second attempt but out of solidarity for those unfortunate souls that
were hitting the upper double digit attempts and in protest to the unusual odds experienced by some beloved players
we refused to use ours until they achieved success. But I have to confess we secretly defected. The constant "ooommm"
made the throaty raspy, the incense was stinkin' up the place and it took half a bottle to straighten out my legs.
I donned my Carhartts as soon as un-named persons hinted that gen skill trees were maybe coming (Ceruhe, Loucaux)
and instead of supporting you we have been producing manuscripts night and day. Sorry for the betrayal, perhaps
without our imitation snowflake impersonation your luck may change hopefully.

On other items I've been in the same boat so I do believe it's not just "luck" but
a problem with the supposed "random generator" as a few will have some trouble
and not everyone should get it first try. But this is ridiculous for so many folks.
BB you need to fix this ASAP

Just completed my 65th attempt, still no success, when do I give up?

Not given up yet. Just completed my 66th attempt with no luck. :( ..... So unfair......

Still trying also. 54 attempts here. What makes this so frustrating is seeing other people churning out manuscripts to be ready for when the generals skill tree is implemented, while I am limited to the 2 books a day my bookbinder can produce. :(

Quote:

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Originally Posted by alice007

Started when follow on drop rates dropped...
Never thought that BB understood random and probability distribution...
Can't forget the arguments made.. if you play long enough... the averages will be true.. or something like that :D

But in cases where you get a given reward only once.. and there is no consolation that some day you'd get 5 manuscript recipes in a row..
This is harsh.. and might even call it wrong and stupid.

@BB - You could argue this for Follow On adventure drop rates... and other rewards like rare buildings..
But how do you argue for this? Please explain... I am again curious :)

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I repeat my question, in a hope that BB will respond...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by alice007

Started when follow on drop rates dropped...
Never thought that BB understood random and probability distribution...
Can't forget the arguments made.. if you play long enough... the averages will be true.. or something like that :D

But in cases where you get a given reward only once.. and there is no consolation that some day you'd get 5 manuscript recipes in a row..
This is harsh.. and might even call it wrong and stupid.

@BB - You could argue this for Follow On adventure drop rates... and other rewards like rare buildings..
But how do you argue for this? Please explain... I am again curious :)

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Hello,

This is a common misconception, but a fellow Settler was kind enough to provide a simple explanation here.

Cheers,

BB_Aeyline

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BB_Aeyline

Hello,

This is a common misconception, but a fellow Settler was kind enough to provide a simple explanation here.

Cheers,

BB_Aeyline

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Thanks a lot for your response.. Really appreciate it :)
But perhaps I was not clear in my question.. So here I repeat -

Quote:

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@BB - You could argue this for Follow On adventure drop rates... and other rewards like rare buildings..
But how do you argue for this? Please explain...

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Please note, I am not asking how probability or probability distribution works,
but why would BB think that Random should even be used in very specific case of Manuscript Recipe?

I may not agree, but I can see your reasoning for building drop rates etc..
but as stated in original post, seems harsh / wrong to apply the same to Manuscript recipe drop rates.

Hope I am clear this time.
Looking forward to any kind of argument or clarification in support of your design choice.
(Again, totally understand how probability works.. but why would BB even leave Manuscript drop rates to probability?
Kind of same response to the Post you linked)

67th attenpt and still no manuscript.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Eriond

Yep.
My point has been, and will continue to be, that THIS particular element of the game shouldn't be decided by bad random number seeds. THIS element of the game is a bit of a game-changer, so it should be achievable with a more defined bit of effort than "luck".

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THIS!
No lucky castles/manors/whatever, fine I'll upgrade my residences or buy these buildings from lucky folks. But this recipe can't be earned any other way and opens up so many doors.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Stix75

...and opens up so many doors.

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You mean "... and opens up so many skills." :D

I think that's what.. BB is also thinking, "it opens doors.. with goats behind those doors... meh..." lol