68th attempt and still no manuscript. ;(
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68th attempt and still no manuscript. ;(
the odds of flipping a coin and getting heads is 1:2. it doesn't matter what the coin did the last 100 coin flips, the next one is still 1:2. my advice would be to wait until you have 10 chests to open and then open all of them at once. that increases the odds of getting the manuscript by 10X. it might make you feel better though it wont affect the odds.
I know how chance and odds work thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by binderberger
I also can recognise a slewed graph when it comes to probability.
Most people got the recipe after the first few tries. My suspicion is that the the odds were changed after the first few weeks. for example from 10:1 to 100:1. In any case the main argument is that some thing as important as being able to to produce manuscripts through recipes should not be left to 'chance' as it slews the game too much in favour of those that get it it in the first few attempts.
Kind of doubt that, we got a handful of people who pretty much charged at it with everybody else but still haven't gotten it.Quote:
My suspicion is that the the odds were changed after the first few weeks. for example from 10:1 to 100:1.
I'm actually throwing this more into one of those crazy random (conspiracy) phenomenons where something happens to your character/account/something based on creation date/join date/something/something/something. BB can't be bothered to respond either and we can't find the denominator that is causing it. The spread of "getting it on the first try" vs "still not gotten it after 50+ tries" is too high to believe it's just a 10% whatever drop chance and those peeps just got massive bad luck.
I've tried that and I got gems from all 10.Quote:
Originally Posted by binderberger
After that huge disappointment I moved to Evil Queen chain (books) for a while.
When the generals skill tree showed up on test i started again the yucky long letters and got the recipe in the third attempt.
I agree. It is way too often that the same players get the 'good' luck so often, and the players with the 'bad' luck get it way too often to be a coincidence or that bizarro of a chance happening over-and-over. Since some players are 'coiners' within both groups, can't factor that in, so still say there is something to do with each individual account and its specific RND(seed) selection.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceruhe
I got it the first time both on test and live. I just assumed everybody would. I will take whatever good luck you wish to send my way.
57 tries and still no recipe.
Sometimes I wonder if there isn't a bit of sensationalism going on -think we already had one admit to that and another did not know how many times then later posts a large exact number.People are people.
The only sensationalism would be if I got it next time.