18th try was the charm for me. *Sigh*
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18th try was the charm for me. *Sigh*
Seeing how many runs so many people are having to do to get this just reminds me of how lucky I got to get mine right away.
Also makes me feel like the drop rate I've been experiencing on WC with adventure searches is karmic payback with interest. So tired of seeing Storm Recovery after Riches of The Mountain just stacking up...
So much misunderstanding of probability :D
Let's suppose that the random chance of event X producing result Y is 1 in 20 (5%). That doesn't mean that if you do X 20 times you will get Y, it doesn't even mean that if you do X 100 times you will get 5 Y. Nor does it rule out that by doing X once you will get Y, either.
what it actually means is that if you do X 1,000,000 times you will get approximately 50,000 Y - it might still be that you *actually* get 50,003 or 49,998.
Assuming that BB haven't published the chance of this recipe, then if you collated all results from all servers, you could probably come close to getting an accurate result for the probability. That still wouldn't preclude you having to do X 100 times to get Y if you were unlucky, or more if you were really unlucky.
Yeah, but no.Quote:
Originally Posted by Llewelyn1966
All my explorers that come back with copies of Storm Recovery are earning credit towards Wood Cutters on the next search. Because, stuff.
#alternateprobability
Yep.Quote:
Originally Posted by grafxfx
And some of us are at well over double that with still nothing...Quote:
Originally Posted by MM3Lee
Yep. If it wasn't for bad luck, I'd have none at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Llewelyn1966
My point has been, and will continue to be, that THIS particular element of the game shouldn't be decided by bad random number seeds. THIS element of the game is a bit of a game-changer, so it should be achievable with a more defined bit of effort than "luck".
4 months running now...
There really should be a cap on this. If I run this 100 times, that "earns" me 5000 gems.
Put the recipe in the TO for 5000 gems for those like me in the "bad RNG" test group.
Actually, wouldn't be THAT hard to implement, when you think about it. Use the achievement system.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eriond
"Run any combination of ventures that can drop the manuscript recipe 100 times without owning the manuscript recipe" Awards 5000 gems.
Could be implemented for all sorts of things where people get the shaft on RNG, like loot drops from adventures, etc.
"Run The Black Knights 1,000 times without owning a Dark Castle" Awards 100 gems
etc...
No manuscript here either , i am hoping they will reward them to people who post here sooner.
BB what did you do? change the odds?
There seems to be 2 groups of players, those who got it really quickly and those that didn't get it at all.
Its a big plus in the game to be able to level up or change skills. Luck or the lack of it shouldn't be such a big factor in a game like this.
60 tries and still no manuscript, is that fair whem most other people got it in the first few tries?
To any new players.... don't spend gems on crystals to get it, it doesn't seem to make a difference.
Am still trying for the recipe too. I have no idea how many times I've tried, I haven't been keeping track, but I do long letters all the time so it must be close to the maximum number. And as others have posted, it gets a bit discouraging when other people get it on the first try and I'm still trying for it months later.
61 attempts wih no succsess and now BB anounces that generals will be skill levelled. Most other players have had the oppertunity to produce 4 months worth of manuscripts in their RPH. Thats about 1,500 manuscripts with a buffed RPH which mine would be. Thats a crazy advantage! BB you need to fix this and make the game fair for all.
Why is that an advantage when we are not playing against other players? Might be different if we could actively defend our colony islands.
Here's another idea for those rare drops that some people get so stymied by:
Have every one of the adventures that could drop the rare loot also drop a token unique to take loot type, non tradeable.
(Example: Manuscript token). Put the manuscript recipe in the shop for, say, 50 manuscript tokens. Put a manuscript in the shop for maybe 10 tokens, just so the token has some value after you get the recipe and you don't pile them up with no means of ever spending them but not worthwhile to be farming the tokens just to get a manuscript.
If someone gets dumped on by the RNG god long enough then there's an out: use the accumulated tokens to buy the recipe.
Of course, then people will get 49 tokens and a recipe will drop on the 50th run-through.
You don't think its an advantage to advance in the game much faster than another player for the same effort? I think its kind of unfair myself, especially that I am suspicious that its some kind of bug. I got it first time so if if takes someone over 60 times to get it, I agree its unfair.
62 attempts wih no succsess.
I also have been trying and trying to get the manuscript recipe with no luck. I haven't been counting, but given the months I've been trying, it has to be at least 40 attempts. I know people who have gotten it on the first try. Those people have had many months to make manuscripts and skill up their explorers and geologists, and will be far better prepared to start booking their generals as soon as that feature becomes available in the game. For those of us without the recipe, putting books on generals is nothing but a pipe dream. It's hard to be excited about a new feature when you know that you won't be able to use it through no fault of your own.
BB does not need to fix any "perceived disadvantage" to new players over older ones. Older players who have put years into the game building resources and buildings didn't have it just given to them. They worked for it, they are now reaping the rewards by being ahead when new things come out over players that just started. That is not a disadvantage. A true "disadvantage" would be to making all new players on equal grounds with buildings, building levels, player levels, achievements, rewards, science tree stuff, resources, geo's, scouts, and gens to older ones. If you were just given everything because you wanted it, and not because you earned it. What's the point in playing this game? Enjoy what you worked for and time spent achieving it. I would love to have weapons return to loot, but that advantage to players (mostly the older ones with larger armies) is gone and I can't see BB bringing it back.
Whats that got to do with it? its not related to how long you have been playing. It effects long and short term players equally, Ive been playing the game 5 years and have a very mature island with everything at level 6.Quote:
Originally Posted by TLC1
My complaint is that most people got the recipe within a couple of attempts whilst a second group havn't got it after 50+ attempts I think if you were in the second group you would understand the frustration a bit better. I can understand why the second group thinks that the "random chance" is broken and needs fixing.
Yep.Quote:
Originally Posted by grafxfx
48th try, FINALLY!!!!!!! MIRACLES DO HAPPEN!!!!!!!!!!
Well there is hope for me yet then just unsuccessfully completed my 63rd attempt :(Quote:
Originally Posted by chuck197661
5 months running nothing but long letters, "luck" still keeps deciding on 50 gems.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grafxfx
Started when follow on drop rates dropped...Quote:
Originally Posted by Eriond
Never thought that BB understood random and probability distribution...
Can't forget the arguments made.. if you play long enough... the averages will be true.. or something like that :D
But in cases where you get a given reward only once.. and there is no consolation that some day you'd get 5 manuscript recipes in a row..
This is harsh.. and might even call it wrong and stupid.
@BB - You could argue this for Follow On adventure drop rates... and other rewards like rare buildings..
But how do you argue for this? Please explain... I am again curious :)
Based on previous (and ongoing) rates, there is very little doubt in my mind, it has to do with the seed applied to the RND() function/procedure... the same people have the awesome luck and the other people seem to have the same crummy luck, while others have crummy and/or blessed luck in certain areas. The 'luck' is certainly not very distributed. it is very likely the seed is pulled from an individuals player account number or other account information, and not a time() or other less static representative.Quote:
Originally Posted by alice007
I can also "confirm" it's not related to misbehaviour (supposedly at least /rolleyes) and chat bans hahaQuote:
The 'luck' is certainly not very distributed. it is very likely the seed is pulled from an individuals player account number or other account information
It's beyond brutal with cases like Eriond, that stopped being funny way too long ago.
hold tongue to the left, close right eye, stand on one foot, tap chest while rubbing head -- works 1/100th of the time
i have all 3 blueprints....now where are those lotto tickets....
I too am irriated by this system. I've ran it more times than I care to count, and nothing but gems. The gems are nice, but I want the recipe. It's getting very frustrating.
Finally got mine on the 22nd try.
Well.... that number 64 and still no manuscript!
confession to make...I got mine on the second attempt but out of solidarity for those unfortunate souls that
were hitting the upper double digit attempts and in protest to the unusual odds experienced by some beloved players
we refused to use ours until they achieved success. But I have to confess we secretly defected. The constant "ooommm"
made the throaty raspy, the incense was stinkin' up the place and it took half a bottle to straighten out my legs.
I donned my Carhartts as soon as un-named persons hinted that gen skill trees were maybe coming (Ceruhe, Loucaux)
and instead of supporting you we have been producing manuscripts night and day. Sorry for the betrayal, perhaps
without our imitation snowflake impersonation your luck may change hopefully.
On other items I've been in the same boat so I do believe it's not just "luck" but
a problem with the supposed "random generator" as a few will have some trouble
and not everyone should get it first try. But this is ridiculous for so many folks.
BB you need to fix this ASAP
Just completed my 65th attempt, still no success, when do I give up?
Not given up yet. Just completed my 66th attempt with no luck. :( ..... So unfair......
Still trying also. 54 attempts here. What makes this so frustrating is seeing other people churning out manuscripts to be ready for when the generals skill tree is implemented, while I am limited to the 2 books a day my bookbinder can produce. :(
I repeat my question, in a hope that BB will respond...Quote:
Originally Posted by alice007
Hello,Quote:
Originally Posted by alice007
This is a common misconception, but a fellow Settler was kind enough to provide a simple explanation here.
Cheers,
BB_Aeyline
Thanks a lot for your response.. Really appreciate it :)Quote:
Originally Posted by BB_Aeyline
But perhaps I was not clear in my question.. So here I repeat -
Please note, I am not asking how probability or probability distribution works,Quote:
@BB - You could argue this for Follow On adventure drop rates... and other rewards like rare buildings..
But how do you argue for this? Please explain...
but why would BB think that Random should even be used in very specific case of Manuscript Recipe?
I may not agree, but I can see your reasoning for building drop rates etc..
but as stated in original post, seems harsh / wrong to apply the same to Manuscript recipe drop rates.
Hope I am clear this time.
Looking forward to any kind of argument or clarification in support of your design choice.
(Again, totally understand how probability works.. but why would BB even leave Manuscript drop rates to probability?
Kind of same response to the Post you linked)
67th attenpt and still no manuscript.
THIS!Quote:
Originally Posted by Eriond
No lucky castles/manors/whatever, fine I'll upgrade my residences or buy these buildings from lucky folks. But this recipe can't be earned any other way and opens up so many doors.
You mean "... and opens up so many skills." :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Stix75
I think that's what.. BB is also thinking, "it opens doors.. with goats behind those doors... meh..." lol