68th attempt and still no manuscript. ;(
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68th attempt and still no manuscript. ;(
the odds of flipping a coin and getting heads is 1:2. it doesn't matter what the coin did the last 100 coin flips, the next one is still 1:2. my advice would be to wait until you have 10 chests to open and then open all of them at once. that increases the odds of getting the manuscript by 10X. it might make you feel better though it wont affect the odds.
I know how chance and odds work thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by binderberger
I also can recognise a slewed graph when it comes to probability.
Most people got the recipe after the first few tries. My suspicion is that the the odds were changed after the first few weeks. for example from 10:1 to 100:1. In any case the main argument is that some thing as important as being able to to produce manuscripts through recipes should not be left to 'chance' as it slews the game too much in favour of those that get it it in the first few attempts.
Kind of doubt that, we got a handful of people who pretty much charged at it with everybody else but still haven't gotten it.Quote:
My suspicion is that the the odds were changed after the first few weeks. for example from 10:1 to 100:1.
I'm actually throwing this more into one of those crazy random (conspiracy) phenomenons where something happens to your character/account/something based on creation date/join date/something/something/something. BB can't be bothered to respond either and we can't find the denominator that is causing it. The spread of "getting it on the first try" vs "still not gotten it after 50+ tries" is too high to believe it's just a 10% whatever drop chance and those peeps just got massive bad luck.
I've tried that and I got gems from all 10.Quote:
Originally Posted by binderberger
After that huge disappointment I moved to Evil Queen chain (books) for a while.
When the generals skill tree showed up on test i started again the yucky long letters and got the recipe in the third attempt.
I agree. It is way too often that the same players get the 'good' luck so often, and the players with the 'bad' luck get it way too often to be a coincidence or that bizarro of a chance happening over-and-over. Since some players are 'coiners' within both groups, can't factor that in, so still say there is something to do with each individual account and its specific RND(seed) selection.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceruhe
I got it the first time both on test and live. I just assumed everybody would. I will take whatever good luck you wish to send my way.
57 tries and still no recipe.
Sometimes I wonder if there isn't a bit of sensationalism going on -think we already had one admit to that and another did not know how many times then later posts a large exact number.People are people.
The only sensationalism would be if I got it next time.
Coming up this week on 6 months of running nothing but long letters (on premium) with no recipe.
If that's sensational, it's not in a good way.
Same here. just completed my 69th attempt with no luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eriond
I've been running the long letter quests 3x/week since all this began, with no manuscript recipe..
That's pretty clearly not a random drop rate, or in all probability I would have gotten it by now.
I suspect the drop rate is tied to player level (I'm 66), which is grossly unfair! We *all* need the manuscript recipe.
70th try still no manuscript.
I got the manuscript recipe today!!!!
...
April Fool's. Of course I didn't.
I shouldn't have had my 71st attempt on April Fools Day, of course no manuscript
72nd attempt and no luck still.
73rd attempt and no luck still.
74th attempt and no luck still.
75th attempt and no luck still.
Pretty close to getting your name in BB's book of world records.. I hopeQuote:
Originally Posted by grafxfx
Just curious - what's the drop rate like for the codex recipe?
No idea... the only one I don't have, and I no longer care. Presumably it will drop someday, not going out of my way to get it any longer.Quote:
Originally Posted by TboneX
I haven't even tried for the codex. Don't see much point in doing travel guides. I could use the tome recipe, though.
76th attempt and no luck still.
77th attempt and no luck still.
wouldn't it suck if you got it long ago and its just hidden in your star.Quote:
Originally Posted by grafxfx
Very funny :D if I am not the one who is suffering :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Artillerist
I thought that and checked many times, making me crazy. If it is there it is invisible! lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by Artillerist
Maybe they made it so you can delete it. If not, you can hopefully soon rejoice.
Quote:
Guaranteed loot: This mechanic will guarantee a drop of a rare item reward, if the item did not drop after a specific amount of rolls on the loot table. This mechanic will reduce the frustration among the community for being dependant on "luck". More info on affected game elements to follow.
Coming up on 7 months now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gwalben
That sounds like exactly the right fix for this ... wonder how long that will take to make it to live, and if they will take into account all the previous "rolls", or if we will be starting over from scratch once it finally launches.
I've poured ~95% of my crystals ever into this (hardly missed a day since Excelsior went live), still nada :mad:
That appeared on test server the other day. It may be the fix to this problem to some degree. If I were to make bets, I'd be saving Crystals now and once it goes live, start trying for it again. I'd imagine that "guaranteed counter" only starts with the implementation of that feature rather than already having kept track of it.Quote:
NEW FEATURES
Guaranteed loot: This mechanism will guarantee a drop of a rare item reward, if the item did not drop after a specific amount of rolls on the loot table. This mechanism will reduce the frustration among the community for being dependant on "luck". More info on affected game elements to follow.
Though dandy started a topic about a bunch of questions to get a more detailed answer to what "rare item" is even being referred to and if boxes are affected by that or not. http://forum.tsotesting.com/threads/...uaranteed-loot
No answer as of yet though.
Well, tomorrow will be 7 months since Excelsior launched.
I have been running Long Letters non-stop since that day. I stopped counting how many exact times "luck" brought me gems, but it was a whole bunch - 7 months worth.
Today, I finally got the manuscript recipe.
Glad to see the upcoming change on the test server -- maybe it will help me get the other recipes, as I can now finally run something other than long letters. Looking forward to seeing what the rest of Excelsior had to offer, and beginning my 7-month catch-up to the rest of you preparing for the general skill tree.
:/
Congrats Eri.. :)
I bet there is a human sitting on his desk, deciding our luck.. based on what he or she had for breakfast, the day of the week, and his / her pay.. etc etc..
YaY!!!! Gratz Eriond!!!! That was some steadfast determination on your part.
Except that you will now be busy making Manuscripts for months without the need for the other recipes anytime soon ^^"Quote:
maybe it will help me get the other recipes, as I can now finally run something other than long letters.
Gratz!
Glad to hear that some people are finally having success. Just had my 78th attempt with no luck.
79th attempt with no luck.
to be honest no point in the other recipies. Making manuscripts with 4x buff on Rarity you get just enough to make tombs in bookbinder with glue non stopQuote:
Originally Posted by Ceruhe