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Thread: How to calculate the value of a loot spot

  1. #1
    Recruit Upgrayeddd's Avatar
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    How to calculate the value of a loot spot

    Many sites like SettlersOnline Wiki have posted loot tables that are pretty much spot on. Using this info, we can calculate the expected value and the exact worth of a loot spot.

    For example, here's Roaring Bull:


    We are guaranteed to get one of the items in each of the slots. Out of slot 1, we will get either granite, exo wood, titanium, or salt. Each of these commodities are readily traded (here's a price guide for Zues). For this example, we'll use these values:
    granite = 3.75
    exo logs = .35
    titanium = 3
    salt = 7
    So, we have a 26% chance of getting 1000 granite. If we were guaranteed to get 1000 granite, then the value of this slot would be 3.75 X 1000 or 3750. But, our chance of getting 1000 granite is actually only 26%, so our "expected value" is .26 x 3750 or 975. Carrying out the calculations for each item on the loot table, we get something like this:



    So, the total value of a RB loot spot is 5313.

  2. #2
    Recruit Upgrayeddd's Avatar
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    Here's the same calculations, using the same commodity values, for Black Knight:


  3. #3
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    but you are using an overall average, which in some cases works out over thousands of these. but 1k e-logs and the other garbage seems to drop a lot more than the site says it should. if you are trying to justify one of the shady price guides out there, where guilds use 2 separate ones to cheat players with then I guess the math works...........

  4. #4
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    Yeah, math is fun and all and sure there is a theoretical value to every loot spot but I have two points for you. One, that is not exactly how statistics work. Two, every person has their own value to each resource. Sure price guides are nice but things like exotic wood have zero value to people who buy a lot of loot spots or run a lot of adventures. Do not get me wrong, I find it amusing every day with a bowl of popcorn watching the arguments people have over the cost of loot spots in the trade tab. Whenever I get bored I just ask for a price check on banners and kick back and enjoy... but I am a terrible person.

    Now I do not go out buying loot spots, and I will finish an adventure without the extra player if no one in the guild or on my friends list wants it so my opinion is probably rubbish. Anywho, here is how I believe one should price loot spots.

    One army. Pretty please.

  5. #5
    Settler
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    I think it's a pretty good guide to determining market value for a ls vs actual realized loot value gained, textbook style.

    Like anything learned from a textbook, it's the lowest common denominator of an area of knowledge and while anyone who learns it can get by on that knowledge, anyone who really studies in depth can indeed find many variables to the circumstances and lots of margin for personal profit.

    And, as mentioned, the fact that it seems like they play with the loot tables at times is the toughest part. Right now it seems like I get exo about 4x as often as granite. And granite has a much higher personal value to me.

    Thanks for posting this; I'll point to it when trying to explain the wisdom of buying ls to those who still don't get it.

  6. #6
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    you get either 1k granite or not...you never get 26% of 1k granite

  7. #7
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    With only 500~600r loss in BK, I will imagine a hard time trying to sell its loot spot for 2.5k.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomsb1176 View Post
    you get either 1k granite or not...you never get 26% of 1k granite
    It's the way the math works on figuring out the value, though.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by lastsw View Post
    With only 500~600r loss in BK, I will imagine a hard time trying to sell its loot spot for 2.5k.
    Trying to sell a product for what someone else can get for it is always tough, as it should be. In this case, the ls buyer has to put in their time, some money up front, and if they wish to realize the value beyond an actual gain in their own stores, time and trouble selling the proceeds. Of COURSE they need to win on the deal if you want them to buy your ls.

  10. #10
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    Given the value of a LS is generally less than the loot, you should try to swap more slots. I'm just saying... one reason to be in a bigger, more active guild... especially with a handful of similar level players running similar adventures (DP/SFTR then BK/RB then FT's).

    There are exceptions to this rule such as the buff quests in FT's.

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