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Thread: For thoughtful folks and all those "conspiracy" theorists

  1. #1
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    For thoughtful folks and all those "conspiracy" theorists

    sorry for the long post ... just wanted to get most of it all in one place ...

    First, full disclosure .. I’m a statistician and wedded to logic … but you don’t need to be one to follow the math or the other logic below …. just think about the things that you don’t know and that you’re depending on a German-based company to be objective about whether or not German-based players “win”…

    1) It’s a baseline thing - The easiest way to ensure that one server would win against any other is to fuss with the baseline. For example, if you’re in charge of counting “active players”, you simply DECREASE the number of active players on the preferred server and INCREASE the number of active players on the server you want to lose or, to make it seem fair, on ALL the other servers. You change the baseline and make the goal easier to reach for the preferred server(s) and harder – potentially MUCH harder – for other servers to reach. We were not given the number of supposedly active players per servers. So we’ll never know what baseline was used, and we will never know if those numbers were accurate anyway. Using "percentages of completion" seems fair until you consider how that baseline can so easily be moved.

    2) It’s a counting thing – Even if you assume that the baselines were honest, you have no idea how many completed quests there were. Were the rumored incomplete quests on another server counted? Who really knows?

    If the math on this doesn’t make sense to you, let me know and I’ll show you.

    Another theory … differences in server maintenance …

    The Zeus server had (and continues to have) serious server problems. Ares has some, but not all of these problems. Do these problems exist on other servers? What proportion of US players can’t access the game? Were they counted as ‘active’ players if their problems are recent and they now can’t access the game? Do the European servers have these problems and if so, are these problems ongoing there? We will never know. Are all servers ‘down’ for the same amount of time all of the time? For the implication of this, see above: it’s the same idea of decreasing the baseline for the preferred server and/or shortening the amount of time that other servers get to play. (On a personal note here, those daily postings from our board mod have been really annoying as they don’t account for the supposed time lag differences - or if they did, that little fact was never mentioned, and the effect on morale was immediate …. And very, very predictable….)

    And third, the time frame thing:

    Supposedly this event is adjusted for starting times, with European servers getting to start first and servers in other countries having a different amount of time to complete. The results were not posted this way (US servers would ALWAYS be at least 6 hours behind) … and btw…. If the language used on Zeus is any indication, quite a few players are NOT US based since their command of English is more than a little bit tenuous. They are likely in different time zones altogether, and I have to wonder whether or not they can synchronize with the time of the Zeus server. I’m happy that we are a multi-national server, but some (how many????) of our players may have been at a distinct disadvantage.

    Overall, I suspect that the intent here might have been good… but then, I tend to think kindly of most folks … the execution of the idea hasn’t been good enough to deserve the label of “poor” … all of which is a real shame. When the competition was announced, I thought it was an interesting idea .. but the total lack of transparency on the part of the organizers is very disheartening … as I said in another post, let’s take what good we can from this event …. And think long and hard about participating in anything like it in future.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Cassiopeia View Post
    sorry for the long post ... just wanted to get most of it all in one place ...

    The Zeus server had (and continues to have) serious server problems. Ares has some, but not all of these problems. Do these problems exist on other servers? What proportion of US players can’t access the game? Were they counted as ‘active’ players if their problems are recent and they now can’t access the game? Do the European servers have these problems and if so, are these problems ongoing there? We will never know. Are all servers ‘down’ for the same amount of time all of the time? For the implication of this, see above: it’s the same idea of decreasing the baseline for the preferred server and/or shortening the amount of time that other servers get to play. (On a personal note here, those daily postings from our board mod have been really annoying as they don’t account for the supposed time lag differences - or if they did, that little fact was never mentioned, and the effect on morale was immediate …. And very, very predictable….)
    Many of the german servers were experiencing severe gameplay issues. The servers were so packed they had problems of not being able to log on, game freezing, and the list goes on.

    Let's not beat a dead horse any longer, shall we?

  3. #3
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    Type Société Anonyme
    Traded as Euronext: UBI
    Industry Video games
    Interactive entertainment
    Founded 1986
    Headquarters Montreuil, France[1]
    Key people Yves Guillemot
    (Chairman and CEO)
    Products Video games (List of Ubisoft games)
    Revenue Increase €972 million (2010)
    Operating income Increase €260 million (2010)[2]
    Net income Decrease €89.8 million (2010)[2]
    Employees 6,927 (03/31/12)[3]
    Website www.ubi.com
    www.ubisoftgroup.com

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ubi_Soft

    explain to me how they are a German company now?

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Anax_Basileus View Post
    Type Société Anonyme
    Traded as Euronext: UBI
    Industry Video games
    Interactive entertainment
    Founded 1986
    Headquarters Montreuil, France[1]
    Key people Yves Guillemot
    (Chairman and CEO)
    Products Video games (List of Ubisoft games)
    Revenue Increase €972 million (2010)
    Operating income Increase €260 million (2010)[2]
    Net income Decrease €89.8 million (2010)[2]
    Employees 6,927 (03/31/12)[3]
    Website www.ubi.com
    www.ubisoftgroup.com

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ubi_Soft

    explain to me how they are a German company now?
    Not to add to any conspiracy but...

    Bluebyte...

    Ubisoft Blue Byte[1] (formerly Blue Byte Software) is a video game developer based in Düsseldorf, Germany, founded in 1988.

    Type Subsidiary of Ubisoft
    Industry Video games
    Founded 1988
    Founder(s) Thomas Hertzler and Lothar Schmitt
    Headquarters Düsseldorf, Germany
    Products The Settlers, Battle Isle
    Owner(s) Ubisoft
    Parent Ubisoft
    Website Blue Byte's official website

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluebyte

  5. #5
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    So many ppl look for these big grand explanations for happenings when most times its the simplest explanation that is truth. I think the intention was good and real. To have a fun event and get all the servers in on it. But the execution wasn't thought out as well as it should have been. They did say they made on effort to account for inactives and only needing "a certain percentage" of server to complete. Though they never did give specifics. But they didn't factor in some larger issues that came up. The age/average level of the different servers. Older servers with more higher level players can obviously run the adventure more often than others. Look at our local ares server as prime example. The easiest and best solution would have been to stair step the adventure for lower levels just like they had already done with the Soccer adventures.
    One annoyance was as The_Cassiopeia mentioned, the daily % updates. No consideration was given for players west of the Atlantic. The only updates we got were the same ones the European servers got as their afternoon/evening update. So all we would get is 1 update in the morning with nothing that evening to see how we did that day. So not seeing progress definitely impacted morale.
    As far as the adventure glitch theory. Who can really say but the developers. I don't see them coping up to a mistake this big any time soon. If there was one that is. I'm not so sure there is one, bc how could they have known without massive amounts of ppl doing it and seeing sudden jump in % completion? I will say though, its suspicious that German server 6 took a whole week to hit 100% but only 2 days to hit 200%
    Over all, no conspiracy here. Just poorly thought out event. In my opinion at least.

  6. #6
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    Let's not beat a dead horse any longer, shall we?[/QUOTE]

    Sorry ... haven't mastered the "reply with quote" thing ..

    And thanks for the information .. it's very helpful ... my desire to beat dead horses is right up there with my longing for another root canal.....one of the things that is so very hard to know is what is going on with other servers so it's helpful when we can get information that is different from what folks have IMAGINED is the fact. ... your response helps the folks who believe that the game is somehow rigged to understand that their concerns may not be justified.

    As I have said before, personally, I don't really care. In doing the EOTW that I could, I got XP and some loot that maybe I wouldn't have otherwise and I had an initial sensation of excitement that a relatively routine game had offered something a little different. I'm absolutely happy with that. My only wish is that it could have been thought out a little more thoroughly

    What i was trying to do was two-fold ... suggest that there are a host of different factors that weren't being disclosed and/or considered .. and get them focused on the fact that this was kind of a fun thing to do whether one gets to the goal or not...

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcain View Post
    So many ppl look for these big grand explanations for happenings when most times its the simplest explanation that is truth. I think the intention was good and real. To have a fun event and get all the servers in on it.
    ^^^^This.

    There is no way the money people would allow anything else, because to do so would alienate a lot of their paying customers, and it's the money people that are in charge.

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcain View Post
    But the execution wasn't thought out as well as it should have been. They did say they made on effort to account for inactives and only needing "a certain percentage" of server to complete. Though they never did give specifics. But they didn't factor in some larger issues that came up. The age/average level of the different servers. Older servers with more higher level players can obviously run the adventure more often than others. Look at our local ares server as prime example. The easiest and best solution would have been to stair step the adventure for lower levels just like they had already done with the Soccer adventures.
    One annoyance was as The_Cassiopeia mentioned, the daily % updates. No consideration was given for players west of the Atlantic. The only updates we got were the same ones the European servers got as their afternoon/evening update. So all we would get is 1 update in the morning with nothing that evening to see how we did that day. So not seeing progress definitely impacted morale.
    As far as the adventure glitch theory. Who can really say but the developers. I don't see them coping up to a mistake this big any time soon. If there was one that is. I'm not so sure there is one, bc how could they have known without massive amounts of ppl doing it and seeing sudden jump in % completion? I will say though, its suspicious that German server 6 took a whole week to hit 100% but only 2 days to hit 200%
    Over all, no conspiracy here. Just poorly thought out event. In my opinion at least.
    I'm pretty much in agreement with everything you have said, though I'm not so sure I'd say it's suspicious that German 6 server took a week to hit 100% then 2 days to hit 200%...this can be explained by a number of other factors such as better guides and having gotten coordination down pat, as well as likely their players seeing how well they are doing gives them a huge boost in morale and drive...yes this is also speculation but also quite likely.

    Now if there was a glitch that some of these servers used to boost their counts then there should be a way of seeing this, and if this was the case I'd like to believe that Ubisoft/Bluebyte would make sure that appropriate action is taken on this.

    As for the daily updates, yes, that was very annoying the way that was handled, updating the counts after the european servers prime time but not after our servers prime time, which at the beginning of the competition would have made our server look like we were doing worse than we really were, and possibly demoralizing some people and affecting future outcome.

    Now, hopefully Ubisoft/Bluebyte will have learned from this event and do things differently for future events

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Falconwolf View Post
    Not to add to any conspiracy but...

    Bluebyte...

    Ubisoft Blue Byte[1] (formerly Blue Byte Software) is a video game developer based in Düsseldorf, Germany, founded in 1988.

    Type Subsidiary of Ubisoft
    Industry Video games
    Founded 1988
    Founder(s) Thomas Hertzler and Lothar Schmitt
    Headquarters Düsseldorf, Germany
    Products The Settlers, Battle Isle
    Owner(s) Ubisoft
    Parent Ubisoft
    Website Blue Byte's official website

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluebyte

    I am well aware that Bluebyte is based in Germany, but it is irrelevant as UBISOFT is the main company. Bluebyte is a subsidiary like it says there.


    Personally I feel the most important factor that got overlooked is level.

    The older servers simply had more level 50's and level 40+ as well than the newer servers, and as a direct result were able to complete more adventures.

    They tried to balance this by number of active players, but they also needed to add in a level factor that was based on average level of active players, so that a server with a higher active average level would also have to complete more adventures.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Anax_Basileus View Post
    I am well aware that Bluebyte is based in Germany, but it is irrelevant as UBISOFT is the main company. Bluebyte is a subsidiary like it says there.
    Yes, but Bluebyte is the subsidiary responsible for The Settlers franchise, like it says in the description. So Ubisoft will have very little to say about The Settlers. Look up the term subsidiary and what it entails.

    Quote Originally Posted by Anax_Basileus View Post
    Personally I feel the most important factor that got overlooked is level.

    The older servers simply had more level 50's and level 40+ as well than the newer servers, and as a direct result were able to complete more adventures.

    They tried to balance this by number of active players, but they also needed to add in a level factor that was based on average level of active players.
    Absolutely, older servers had way more higher levels, though not sure how they could have balanced that out by "active players"

  10. #10
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    I looked it up. Originally a German company..now owned by French. My God. The horror of it all......

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