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Gold mines, to build or not to build?
This is a very old question with a very old answer: never, NEVER build... always refill.
I wanted to see if this still holds true in the current market prices so I began my analysis.
First Assumption: Always keep your gold chain buffed... put them to sleep whenever you can't keep them buffed. This rule is a no-brainer as the cost of a basket is far lower than the value of the extra resources produced. With this in mind I will also factor in the cost of baskets and assume that someone else places them. This means also that 1 ore in a mine is turned into 1 gold coin in the storehouse and the production ratio of the gold chain is 1 mine to 1 smelter to 1 coinage (nice and simple).
Second Assumption: Market price is the LOWEST price (in gold coins) of a good in the trade office regardless of quantity. This is what you could sell your resources at in the current market so that is the value of your resources. No one is going to buy the highest priced lot so a range value is useless in this analysis. Day over day, prices vary by 1-2 gold per thousand of an item so you can use that wiggle room in your decisions.
Current market as of 2013/02/20 (Zeus server):
Marble: 35 gold coins per 1000
Hardwood Planks: 20 gold coins per 1000
Tools: 33 gold coins per 1000
Coal: 8 gold coins per 1000
Aunt Irma's Gift Basket: 5 Gold coins
500 Gold Ore Deposit: 333 gold coins (this has the highest degree of market price fluctuation because of limited availability)
Scenario 1 - Rebuild Mines
This scenario can be used as early as player level 23 if my research is correct. I am currently above that level so I could not confirm in game. As mentioned above, the production ration is 1-1-1 but I would recommend building two level 1 mines, one level 2 smelter and one level 2 coinage to help make buffing more efficient. This will halve the cost of buffs on the smelter and coinage. This will require 4 licenses and can be scaled up to the 8 available gold mines on your island.
Cost per mine rebuild (300 ore in the ground):
Geologist's time: 4 hours with a regular or 2 hours with a Jolly Geologist (you could factor this into total production time but I do this while I sleep and don't have the mines running any way)
Mine Life-cycle: 300 * 0.2067 hours (12 minutes 24 seconds) = 62 hours
Marble 1.4 * 35 = 49gc
Hardwood Planks 1.4 * 20 = 28gc
Tools 1.5* 33 = 49.5gc
Coal 2.4 * 8 = 19.2gc
Baskets 14 * 5 = 70gc (7 for the mine, 3.5 for the smelter, and 3.5 for the coinage)
Number of baskets required are calculated as follows:
300 ticks (or cycles) from the mine at 12 minutes 24 seconds = 62 hours / by 9 hours per basket = 6.8888 which is bumped to 7 because then the mine crashes and the 0.12 hours are wasted.
Total Cost: 215.7gc
Total Profit 84.3gc
Total Time 62 hours
Multiply by 2 because you have 2 mines going in parallel and you get 2 * 84.3 / 62 = 2.72 gc/hour
Additional Tips:
Salvaging your gold mines at 1 ore left will return 25% of your initial cost which can save a lot of resources over time. You would get back 350 marble and hardwood planks and 375 tools. This will cost 1 gold of output to save 30.95 gold of input.
You can also use one level 2 mine instead of two level 1 mines. This will save you 3.5 baskets per mine but cost you 500 extra tools so 3.5 * 5 = 17.5gc in basket cost versus 0.5 * 33 = 16.5gc gives you a savings of 1gc, 1 building license, and 4 hours geologist time. This narrow a margin in profit, it comes down to personal preference and market fluctuation.
Applying the additional tips yields:
Total Cost: 184.075gc
Total Profit 114.925gc
Total Time 31 hours
This works out to 114.925 / 31 = 3.71 gc/hour
Scenario 2 - Refill Upgraded Mines
This scenario would see you build the mine once and upgrade it to level 5 so for this analysis we will use one level 5 mine, one level 5 smelter, and one level 5 coinage. The infrastructure cost of this scenario is very high so it would be something work towards over time.
Cost per refill (500 ore in the ground):
Mine Life-cycle: 100 * 0.2067 hours = 20.67 hours
Gold Ore Refill 333gc
Coal 4 * 8 = 32gc
Baskets 9 * 5 = 45gc (3 for the mine, 3 for the smelter, and 3 for the coinage)
Total Cost: 410gc
Total Profit 90gc
Total Time 20.67 hours
Conclusion:
In the current market it is still profitable to let your gold mines crash and rebuild them. At 3.71 gold per hour, there are few things on your island that can produce more profit per hour. This is a great way to squeeze out a little extra profit with not a lot of extra licenses at level 23.
However, as your island matures, you can increase your profit if you choose to invest in your infrastructure and get those builds up to much higher levels. You become more dependent on gems, adventuring and the volatile deposit prices on the trade office with this method though.
Either way, I recommend considering a gold chain on your island sooner than later. This is definitely counter culture to the common recommendation so I hope to see lots of good discussion in this thread to see if I missed anything in my analysis.
Additional threads found on topic:
http://forum.thesettlersonline.net/t...ight=gold+mine (credit for salvaging mines at 1 gold ore left)
http://forum.thesettlersonline.net/t...hain-economics (credit for taking mines to level 2)
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Lvl 2 mines work better then lvl 1 mines. you save 3 baskets at the cost of 500 tools. This saves cost per ore and effectively doubles revenue generation (though costs increase by 95% or so).
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Interesting point, you do only save 3 baskets, not the 3.5 I used in my calculation because the 0.5 would be wasted when the mine collapse (or is salvaged). Thanks for pointing that out. All other costs remain exactly the same though, which means you double the revenue at double the cost so no additional benefits there.
At the prices used above, 3 * 5 = 15gc for baskets or 0.5 * 33 = 16.5gc.
That means at current prices level 1 mines are better. I was surprised however when I checked that baskets were at such a low price. I expected them to 6gc or at least 5.5gc, which makes the level 2 mines identical or slightly better.
With a maximum difference of 1.5gc that means: 1.5 / 300 = 0.005 or 0.5% difference between the 2 methods
At that rate I would say it doesn't really matter and go with personal preference.
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Its more complicated since you are not factoring in say x3 buffs, which work very well once you have a level 5 mine.
The best production times for each buildings are:
Mine: 12:08
Smelter: 12:24
Coinage: 24:24
Based on the above production time the order for using an x3 buff is Mine, Coinage, Smelter.
In the below calculation i will use an x3 cookie on the mine, smelter, coinage
Mine 158 Cycles: Consume 5 ore per cycle: Produce 15 ore per cycle
Total Ore Consumed 790 ore
Total Ore Produced 2370 ore
The buff produces an extra 790 ore which will be processed into 395 gold coins.
Smelter 154 Cycles: Consume 10 ore per Cycle, Consume 40 Coal Per Cycle: Produce 15 Bars per Cycle
Total Ore Consumed 1540, Coal Consumed 6160
Total Bars Produced 2310
The buff produces an extra 770 Bars which will be processed into 385 gold coins.
Coinage 78 Cycles: Consumes 20 Bars per Cycle, Produces 15 Gold Coins per Cycle
Total Bars Consumed 1560
Total Gold Coins Produced 1170
The buff produces an extra 390 gold coins.
These 3 numbers 395, 385, 390 set price points for cookies in your market, if a cookie is below this value you make money, if it is at this value
you get free buffs, it can even be higher.
a 32 hour cookie equals 5.3333 baskets, so it still works in your favor up to 420 gc.
You need to calculate these break even points for x3 buffs in your market and during events horde like crazy, if you do this you will soon discover
that your first method is a total waste of time.
Also since you can see you gain the best bang for your buck on a lvl 5 gold mine, the refill method starts working well long before you have
gathered the resources to upgrade your coinage and smelter.
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