PvP...some math

[W1lson]

Because I was bored I ran some numbers on PvP. I don't think anyone will be surprised, but I thought I'd share it here with you all:
(all market values for Ares server on April 15, 2015)

This is still a work in progress, as I haven't advanced in tiers, and I don't have a regular colony open at the moment, but using current Ares market prices. I can update some of the charts later when I get more info.

The cost of each weapon type is:



So, we see a fairly similar cost between weapon types, with the cavalry ones being slightly cheaper given the price of coal and iron vs. hardwood lumber and steel (at least today).


The cost of each troop type is:



So, we see that while the attack units are similarly priced, the infantry is now the most expensive since the recent change in cost of the weapons (it was before drastically in the other direction). This tells me that when I set up my defenses, if I want the attacker to hurt as much as possible, I want him to lose a lot of melee troops. So, I will probably choose to stack all my defenses with cavalry to force him to use his (slightly) more expensive troops. Maybe that's a wash though if steel and iron prices fluctuate just a little bit. *** EDIT - with current steel prices (Ares at least) the attack infantry is actually the cheapest attack unit (more like 3.8 coins per)...so....never mind on that bit! ***

We also see that blocking troops are almost at half the price of attack troops (they require half as many weapons to train). So, that tells us that if in blocking a camp we lose as many troops as we would have by killing it...maybe it is worth it anyway. In fact most blocks will use less than 1/3 of what you would lose in killing a camp...so make use of your heavy blockers!


The breakdown of how much it costs to attack a colony (including the cost of one expedition search and the average troop losses listed below) and the resulting rewards for a granite colony are as follows:


(This chart assumes the value of 1 granite = 3.6 coins, which on Ares server it does the day I am writing this)

This doesn't account for things like losing an expedition, or the fact that if you search and don't find anything you like you'll have just paid your coin and sausage for nothing. It assumes what I am guessing are fairly average troops losses, and it also assumes that you used 90% attack troops and 10% blocking troops and an even mix of each unit type within those percentages. If you lose more than the "average troop losses" listed up there you are going to be worse off, if you can do it with fewer losses than good for you, you just earned a little more profit!

Note that if I run the numbers for titanium, you can still recover your costs, but it is going to take 30% longer or more depending on current market values. Anything else, including exotic wood lumber is not going to be recoverable even if you hold the colony all week (after 7 days if you still have it, the colony goes away automatically). So, unless you are hunting granite or maybe titanium you only want to do PvP for fun, not for profit.

[BB_Endesmor]

Hi W1lson,

Thanks for sharing your findings with the community, it was a good read!

Cordially,
BB_Endesmor

[BB_Aeyline]

Cool info. to have. Thank you for taking the time to share it with our players!

[Remei]

I've done my own math a while ago, and while some results are similar to yours, there are two big differences:

1) steel bars are nowhere near 0.9c each, as it implies from your results. On Ares, they can be bought for 0.5 or less pretty much anytime, what makes pikes and infantry still the cheapest troop type hands down. But I encourage you to keep building anti-infantry defenses - makes it cheaper for me to conquer

2) titanum vs granite prices are roughly 2.5 to 3 at the moment (granite at 3.6 will likely expire unless it's the only offer in the market). But lower market price of titanium is compensated by higher reward per cycle - as opposite to 66 granite for a conquered player-owned small T1 colony (the number is significantly lower for bandit-owned colonies), you get almost double the titanium ore for the same colony type (I think it was 110 ore), what means titanium colonies are the top choice to go after, profit-wise.

But yes, all other colonies except granite and titanium ones will never pay back, no matter what your losses are or how long you keep them - that's why I'm often surprised to see player-owned marble or coal colonies even at Tier 3...

[alice007]

With PvP new troop types were introduced.. but they take pop as well.. I wish BB would do something about making more PoP available to players... Like Master Architect box may be
Otherwise, with only 2.5k total pop at lv 48, I am not sure i'd even want to divide my troops among regular and expedition adventures..

[W1lson]

Yup, good point Remei. Those market values were basically the cheapest bulk you could buy when I checked the market yesterday...I don't really track stuff like steel/iron/brew enough to keep on top of that. If you have any recommendations for prices on commodities, here's what I had used above, I can redo it with different numbers:

coins per unit
brew 0.0125
coal 0.02895
hardwood lumber 0.02
horse 0.0275
iron 0.3375
sausage 0.11
steel bar 0.8
granite 3.6
titanium ore 2.2

If I drop the steel price to 0.5, that does reduce the attack infantry cost to 3.8 coins per unit.

If anybody has info about:

-Your average troop losses for different sized colonies at different tiers
-Rate of reward for different resources per 6/hr period at different size/tier colonies (and apparently player snatched vs. bandit, which I didn't know before)

I would love to see that, and can update the info above.

[Koshko]

The cost of most things in Zeus is comically expensive compared to Ares.