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Thread: Adventures very long search

  1. #1
    Settler
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Location
    Romania
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    World
    Zeus

    Adventures very long search

    This is the forth time in a row when my explorers (all 10 savage scouts) came back home without any Wood cutter adventure.

    I am very unlucky or the drops of this adventure was modified again? I remember when I started sending explorers on the very long adventure search they were coming back home even with 4 wood cutter adventures... and never without at least one.

    So, I am unlucky or what?

  2. #2
    Noble
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    345
    World
    Zeus
    Assuming there is a 9% chance to find one, there's a 91% chance to not find one. So the odds of not finding one on 40 consecutive searches:

    0.91^40=0.0229

    About 2.3% -- seems unlucky to me but nothing crazy going on here.

    And if they lowered the odds from 9% You're even more likely to not find one in 40 searches.

  3. #3
    Settler
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Posts
    239
    World
    Ares
    You can't make the assumption that unsuccessful searches that have previously occurred will increase your future chances of successful searches.

    Each individual search has that 9% chance (assuming nothing has changed). So, you may sometimes get streaks of finds and streaks of nothing.

    When the Xmas event started, I ran a Bandit's Nest and got RBN. I was just killing time waiting for searches to come back and ran another. I got ANOTHER RBN.

    So I ran a 3rd one, and then a 4th and 5th, just to see if RBN was suddenly dropping more. Apparently not, since I haven't seen RBN drop since - I just had a really lucky incident where I not only got the drop, but got it twice in a row.

    Over a long period of time if you keep enough records you should be able to see if the odds are landing as expected based on the percentages we read, but there will be runs of both good and bad.

  4. #4
    Veteran General
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    770
    World
    Ares
    I finally found one again after 5x7 sends...they got a thing for RotM though.

  5. #5
    Noble
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Alberta Canada
    Posts
    397
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    Zeus
    well i trained all 18 explorers in chance of finding 2 adventures. Most days i find one or 2. Some days none. Yesterday I found 7. So its all in the odds. the more you send the closer to the 8.6% you will get too
    Zeus Artillerist {Gnomelot}
    Ares AAtillerist {Weeble Nation}

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