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Thread: VL Adv Search – Alarming Change In Drop Rates?

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    Mayor Perwyn's Avatar
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    VL Adv Search – Alarming Change In Drop Rates?

    A little background: Have been doing VL Adventure searches using 3 tavern explorers. Have been tracking results since I started. Continued to send these 3 explorers on VL Adv searches all thru the Easter event. Added Intrepid explorer within the 1st 2 days of event. What I've recorded since the introduction of the new explorer is a drastic change in the return of Secluded Experiments in particular and a change in Young Woodcutter as well, tho not as drastic. It may seem to be too early to really tell, but numbers don't lie and the early results are not encouraging.

    Out of 127 search results prior to Intrepid got 5 SE adventures.

    Out of 37 search results since Intrepid got 6 SE adventures.

    Out of 127 search results prior to Intrepid got 13 Young Woodcutter adventures.

    Out of 37 search results since Intrepid got 1 Young Woodcutter adventure.

    Something is not right with the drop rate judging from these results. I'm not saying it's the Intrepid, I'm saying it's a problem in the drop rate affecting all explorers. I'll continue tracking and will update this post from time to time.

    Below is a screenshot of my spreadsheet with columns for:

    total results – results prior to Intrepid – results after Intrepid – the numbers speak for themselves.

    "Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking." ~ Marcus Aurelius

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    When armies used to march, it was important to hide the number and types of troops that were being used. To prevent spies from determining troop information from the tracks left on unpaved roads, a large cloth was weighed down with rocks, and dragged on the trail behind the army to obscure the tracks. They called this a spreadsheet.

    While the information provided superficially shows a change, the sample size for the groups does not have the power to show any actual difference. There is a nice summary of the meaning of power here: power & sample size. The initial sample size is too small to be able to assume it adequately describes the previous odds; the second sample set is less than a quarter of that. Because the probabilities of the specific events, getting a specific adventure, is an expected low probability, it takes a fairly large sample set to prove there has been a change. Using a power of 80% (the strength of saying there was a change) and comparing just the single event of getting an Ali Baba (set for 10%), you would need a total of 239 searches in each group. A simple calculator can be found here. As it is, the samples given are barely strong enough to determine if the rate of map fragments vs. adventures has changed.

    While I applaud the effort in keeping track and attempting to analyze the data, the current information is less alarming and more alarmist.

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    Mayor Perwyn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aurboth View Post
    While I applaud the effort in keeping track and attempting to analyze the data, the current information is less alarming and more alarmist.
    LOL.... well I suppose. But looking at Secluded Experiments specifically is what has me alarmed. I would need to get 0 in the next 90 results to be more or less even with the previous results. I don't think that's likely, but we'll see.

    I get what you're saying about the size of the sample; however, looking at the percentages from the 1st 127 searches prior to the Intrepid going live, they are fairly close to what's published in the Eurowiki. Perhaps the Eurowiki data sample is as small as mine? I don't know.

    I'll keep tracking and if SE looks all out of proportion as it does currently I'll keep raising the alarm.

    Interesting historical note about spreadsheets by the way. Thanks for the info.

    Edited in the wee hours because something was just gnawing at me.......

    Here's what's alarming: With tavern explorers it took somewhere between 2 and 3 months to accumulate 5 Secluded Experiments. All of a sudden within less than 3 weeks I've accumulated 6 more. That's just plain too weird if you ask me. Let's put all the statistical hoo ha aside and just think about that. 2 to 3 months for 5 SE vs less than 3 weeks for 6 more. Something happened. It ain't a good something. And it's got naught to do with data sample size.

    Looking at the data.... If I get a Woodcutter or two in the next few days, that'll smooth out. And all the other numbers are in proportion with the exception of SE. It went from less than 4% of finds prior to Intrepid to over 16% since Intrepid. Something is not right/has changed in regards to SE and I don't like it one bit.
    "Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking." ~ Marcus Aurelius

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    Mayor Perwyn's Avatar
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    Here are more results of VL adventure searches. Just to be perfectly clear... I am not doing any other adventure searches. Just Very longs.

    As you can see on the spreadsheet out of 5 additional results since my original posting, 2 have been Secluded Experiments, bringing the return rate for this adventure to over 19% since the introduction of the Intrepid explorer.

    Again I will say: It took between 2 and 3 months to obtain 5 SE prior to the Intrepid. With the introduction of the Intrepid it's taken less than 3 weeks to obtain 8. All my explorers are affected. Something is definitely not right here. Please fix this.


    "Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking." ~ Marcus Aurelius

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    Settler Pteris's Avatar
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    According to the wiki [ http://settlersonlinewiki.eu/en/guides/explorer/ ] the drop rate for Secluded Experiments is 3.7% for long searches and 2% for very long searches when searching for adventures. I would think that these rates reflect the statistics before this Easter event.

    Hmmm...

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    Mayor Raubhautz's Avatar
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    Well, I would not be terribly surprised by BB 'offering' in the explorer searches a ton of worthless adventures that few, if any people run any longer; ergo lots of coops (with nerfed loot), Wild Mary and etc... I do like running SE on occasion. I am also not surprised to see that useful adventures would drop less often, though time will tell how much.

    I also like our scholar offering advice in randomization and distribution. Though your results and sample size are small (as you stated in the beginning), clearly the number of SE would be 'alarming', since to fall back into line at a supposed 2% drop rate, you'd need to be able to run around 263 more searches without getting a SE...

    Keep up the good work.
    “Many that live deserve death. And some die that deserve life. Can you give it to them? Then be not too eager to deal out death in the name of justice, fearing for your own safety. Even the wise cannot see all ends.”
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    Mayor Perwyn's Avatar
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    OK, now we can compare the 1st spreadsheet from April 2nd with one taken 8 days later on April 10th. I've stuck with 3 tavern explorers and the Intrepid throughout. The Original spreadsheet is at the top followed by the newest spreadsheet.

    We had a record of 127 search results prior to the Intrepid. Since adding the Intrepid we're almost halfway to that number again at 63 search results. I'm still concerned by an excessive number of Secluded Experiments and a low number of Young Wood Cutters. It's out of balance with previous results, before the Intrepid was introduced.

    I've tracked different things in game: granite from medium searches, rainbow snows from artifact searches, and I know from those experiences that the game is very reliable in what it returns in a given time period. There are always minor fluctuations, but once it's been established that a certain result can be expected 10% of the time over the course of 4 weeks (for example) that percentage will always hold true over the course of time. I see that beginning to happen here with some results, they're falling in line with previous results, but I still see wild variations with others. I will continue to track and will post results every 7 to 10 days. I believe the numbers will speak for themselves. Please keep in mind that the 127 results prior to the intrepid took almost 3 months, the 63 since the intrepid took just under 4 weeks due to her speed and bonuses. Also keep in mind that the excess in SE's is coming from all explorers, so I suspect the drop rate, not the Intrepid.





    "Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking." ~ Marcus Aurelius

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    Mayor Perwyn's Avatar
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    Here is a spreadsheet of just the results of my wife's Intrepid Explorer. Looking at the combined totals it also shows an overabundance of SE's being returned. As with my own results, these will be updated and posted at intervals as more data is gathered.

    "Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking." ~ Marcus Aurelius

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    Mayor Perwyn's Avatar
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    I keep on hoping that I'm going to start getting a disproportianate amount of YWC's & VLT's soon, no more SE's or Whirlwinds (please!) and over the next few weeks things begin to balance out. But then my tavern explorers come home after a 2 and a half day wait and it's more of the same. Or my Intrepid comes home with map frags and another Whirlwind or SE.

    Some of my friends are telling me it must just be some bad luck and it'll change soon. I don't know. I've had runs of bad RNG with other things before, but never for this long. It's been 5 weeks now and my luck isn't changing.

    Prior to the Intrepids release, I was getting decent results with just 3 tavern explorers. (see column: Search results prior to Intrepid Explorer) It was slow going, but it was balanced. Now it's all whacked and I'm getting garbage results from all of them, the tavs and the Intrepid. (see column: Search results since Intrepid Explorer) Look at the numbers!

    If this had happened out of the blue, I would not have even begun this post. But since it coincides EXACTLY with the release of the Intrepid Explorer, I still say that something was changed with the release and is what caused the big surge in the number of SE's (and now Whirlwinds) I'm getting.

    If something has been changed, please fix whatever it is that's causing the huge spike in SE's and Whirlwinds and the lack of YWC's. If it is truly a case of bad luck and nothing in the drop rates was changed or is malfunctioning, there's still the fact that not everyone can (or wants to) send out 18 explorers at a time to ease the rough edges faster.

    How can I run Young Wood Cutter, when I can't GET Young Wood Cutter?!?!?!? Unlucky RNG?? For 5 continuous weeks?? Really?? I just gotta laugh. If my 1st month or two of doing VL adventure searches would have yielded the results I've gotten in the past 5 weeks, I would have stopped doing them and not bothered to get the Intrepid. That's why I was tracking results in the 1st place, to see if they were worth doing. They used to be. I was really excited to get the Intrepid, but the massively unbalanced search results I've gotten since her release are a huge disappointment. This is totally frustrating.



    I will continue to track my results and post them here every 7 to 10 days. It would be extremely helpful if BB simply let us know what the drop rates actually are, but that's never gonna happen.
    "Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking." ~ Marcus Aurelius

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    Mayor Perwyn's Avatar
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    So my Intrepid came home last night and finally had a VLT. And the bonus adventure was……. Wait for it…….. Secluded Experiments!!!!!! AAAAAAAARRRRRRRGGGGGGGHHHHHHH!!!

    One of my guildmates has been tracking his results since after Easter and shared them with me. I've taken screen shots. He's sending out 18 explorers at a time and he's getting the kind of results you would expect. The percentages are in balance and he's not getting 13% secluded experiments.

    Is it possible, (I know it is, and even highly likely), that the search algorithm has been modified and as long as you're sending out a mass of explorers at a time it's working perfectly, BUT, if you're sending out ones and twos at a time, the results are sporradic.

    I'm sorry all my friends, but the results I'm getting can't be explained away by bad RNG. Bad RNG is exactly what the label implies, Random. It's not constant and doesn't last for 5 weeks at a time. The results I was getting with just 3 tavern explorers prior to Intrepid were entirely satisfactory. Results have totally hit the fan since.

    Look at my guildmates current results below. Look at my column: Search results Prior to Intrepid Explorer in the spreadsheet below. Look similar? No they're not exact, but they're in the ballpark with each other in that they're balanced and secluded experiments is not way out of proportion. Then look at my column: Search results since Intrepid Explorer and compare to my guildmates results. Are they still similar? Is there any doubt that something is wildly out of balance in my search results since Intrepid?

    Alright, well, there's something for the devs to consider I guess. And I hope it also shows them that I'm trying to figure out what's going on, not just whining and complaining. Altho if things don't change soon I might have to set my computer on fire.






    "Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking." ~ Marcus Aurelius

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