18th try was the charm for me. *Sigh*
18th try was the charm for me. *Sigh*
Seeing how many runs so many people are having to do to get this just reminds me of how lucky I got to get mine right away.
Also makes me feel like the drop rate I've been experiencing on WC with adventure searches is karmic payback with interest. So tired of seeing Storm Recovery after Riches of The Mountain just stacking up...
So much misunderstanding of probability
Let's suppose that the random chance of event X producing result Y is 1 in 20 (5%). That doesn't mean that if you do X 20 times you will get Y, it doesn't even mean that if you do X 100 times you will get 5 Y. Nor does it rule out that by doing X once you will get Y, either.
what it actually means is that if you do X 1,000,000 times you will get approximately 50,000 Y - it might still be that you *actually* get 50,003 or 49,998.
Assuming that BB haven't published the chance of this recipe, then if you collated all results from all servers, you could probably come close to getting an accurate result for the probability. That still wouldn't preclude you having to do X 100 times to get Y if you were unlucky, or more if you were really unlucky.
Yeah, but no.Originally Posted by Llewelyn1966
So much misunderstanding of probability
Let's suppose that the random chance of event X producing result Y is 1 in 20 (5%). That doesn't mean that if you do X 20 times you will get Y, it doesn't even mean that if you do X 100 times you will get 5 Y. Nor does it rule out that by doing X once you will get Y, either.
what it actually means is that if you do X 1,000,000 times you will get approximately 50,000 Y - it might still be that you *actually* get 50,003 or 49,998.
Assuming that BB haven't published the chance of this recipe, then if you collated all results from all servers, you could probably come close to getting an accurate result for the probability. That still wouldn't preclude you having to do X 100 times to get Y if you were unlucky, or more if you were really unlucky.
All my explorers that come back with copies of Storm Recovery are earning credit towards Wood Cutters on the next search. Because, stuff.
#alternateprobability
Yep.
And some of us are at well over double that with still nothing...
Yep. If it wasn't for bad luck, I'd have none at all.
My point has been, and will continue to be, that THIS particular element of the game shouldn't be decided by bad random number seeds. THIS element of the game is a bit of a game-changer, so it should be achievable with a more defined bit of effort than "luck".
4 months running now...
There really should be a cap on this. If I run this 100 times, that "earns" me 5000 gems.
Put the recipe in the TO for 5000 gems for those like me in the "bad RNG" test group.
Actually, wouldn't be THAT hard to implement, when you think about it. Use the achievement system.
"Run any combination of ventures that can drop the manuscript recipe 100 times without owning the manuscript recipe" Awards 5000 gems.
Could be implemented for all sorts of things where people get the shaft on RNG, like loot drops from adventures, etc.
"Run The Black Knights 1,000 times without owning a Dark Castle" Awards 100 gems
etc...
No manuscript here either , i am hoping they will reward them to people who post here sooner.
BB what did you do? change the odds?
There seems to be 2 groups of players, those who got it really quickly and those that didn't get it at all.
Its a big plus in the game to be able to level up or change skills. Luck or the lack of it shouldn't be such a big factor in a game like this.
60 tries and still no manuscript, is that fair whem most other people got it in the first few tries?
To any new players.... don't spend gems on crystals to get it, it doesn't seem to make a difference.
Am still trying for the recipe too. I have no idea how many times I've tried, I haven't been keeping track, but I do long letters all the time so it must be close to the maximum number. And as others have posted, it gets a bit discouraging when other people get it on the first try and I'm still trying for it months later.
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