Manuscript blueprint

[alice007]

Got the manuscript on the 2nd "Lost Compass" and the Tome recipe on the 2nd "Evil Queen".

I'm pretty sure their algorithm is screwed up for some people.

BB cares about averages only... not individual samples (players)
Before someone smart points it out.. let me tell the spoiler -

that is how probability distribution works..
and there is nothing wrong with BB or the design choice..
Anyone who says otherwise, doesn't understand random chance and probability distribution
and any other argument is simply not backed by sound logic
(i.e. BB cannot let common sense come in the way of completely rational and logical decisions)

PS - your odds of making a convincing argument to BB are 1 in a billion..
If you really do feel that lucky today.. Better to go buy a lottery ticket..
and buy the company so that you can drive from top down, what is deemed common sense at BB
Yes.. at many companies big and small, there are always things where only things coming from top down make perfect sense..

PPS - You can also try to get BB to explain the following topic:
https://forum.tsotesting.com/threads...uaranteed-loot
Started the thread a while back.. but no response yet..
My hope is, they are saving it all for a detailed and comprehensive, 20 page dev diary..
Why 20 page? They have lots and lots of broken scenarios to explain.. no?

[tomsb1176]

^^utter nonsense

[Smurdley]

I agree. As a student of probability & statistics, alice007's comments are way off base. A normal distribution bell curve with a reasonable sampling based on a truly random occurrence would only have a few scattered entries at the low end or high end with the vast majority in the middle. When I read the forums, there are a slew of folks (like me) that achieved multiple recipes in a few tries and even more that appear to have taken 50, 60, and one case of 84 tries to get a single recipe.

Imagine the probability of flipping a coin 84 times and always getting "heads". It is possible, but most improbable.

[alice007]

I am glad we all agree

[tomsb1176]

Using the US servers and the few people who post here just does not provide a good sample size.

[Gwalben]

How many sides are on the coin?

[alice007]

How many sides are on the coin?

Great question

eu wiki says 10.. but only BB knows

[Sherman_Grant]

Currently on try Eleven for Manuscript... had a fellow guildie get it first time when I was on my 6th try.... very frustrating because people say "Oh you should do this with your books and that with those books.... when all you have is ONE bookbinder and no other way of generating skill Books.... one of the most idiotic things they have done is NOT put a limit on the attempts you make before you finally get it.....

[Aurboth]

It is surprising that with all the budding statisticians posting here that no one has really given any real probability information, starting with that this is not a normal distribution problem. With only two outcomes, the statistics used should be a binomial distribution. For anyone masochistic enough to want to understand it better, you can look here or here.

While a 10% rate for the manuscript recipe was reported earlier and cited to the wiki.eu, I was not able to find the same information there. A specific link would be appreciated. Essentially, this is no different from rolling a 10 or 20 sided dice to obtain a specific value. It is easy to intuit that one in ten or one in twenty people would still get the desired reward on the first try. It is more difficult to intuit how unlikely it is not to get the reward after a certain number of tries. Again, for anyone interested in actually determining it themselves, there is a simple calculator here. For everyone else, with a 10% drop rate, 19 of 20 people should have received the drop within 28-29 tries; with a 5% drop rate, 19 of 20 should have it within 58-59 tries. Sadly, the last 1% of people can still take more than 44 or 90 tries, for 10% and 5% respectively.

Low drop rates for anything are painful. It was the same when people needed the Angel Gate which could only be obtained from one adventure, with an even lower reported drop rate. The problem here is not the drop rate, which is still higher than most of the rare items in the game. The issue is that the reward is something that provides a significant advantage to the players that do get it, and there are no alternatives that compensate for not having it.

[SkyePromise]

Thirty days later and still pursuing the elusive manuscript recipe. Being in the bottom 1% of people trying for this is very discouraging.